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Betting - Arbing/hedging/dutching/hutching?!!

Johnny75

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Unless it's a life changing amount or you could really do with the money then you should never cash out. With how the bookies price up things then the cash out is never what it should be and you aren't getting value for the bet.

I have a different view to this. If you can be £65 better off guaranteed why wouldn't you take it? As it is Del loses £5 seems daft to turn down that amount of money to me.
 

slink

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I have a different view to this. If you can be £65 better off guaranteed why wouldn't you take it? As it is Del loses £5 seems daft to turn down that amount of money to me.

Yeah but it's all designed for you to do that, the bookies would rather you cash out because of the %s that they work to. Guarantee with bets around that stake and return punters lose out on money because they cash out. Generally if you have an option to cash out and the offer is a reasonable amount it's because the selections left are likely to win so when betting is all about %s and value then cashing out when the money is not life changing will more than likely lose you money over time.
 

Tony Towner

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Bookies wouldn't have introduced cashing out 3 years or so ago if they hadn't worked out that statistically they'll be better off. I've only ever cashed out once about £200 after the first 2 of 3 horses in a treble came in, when it would have been about £300 if I didn't. My view was I wouldn't put £200 on a horse so took the money. It won though so Bet365 mitigated their loss.
 

Del Woppio

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Yeah, weirdly if I'd staked a tenner, and the cash out was £170, I'd have taken it. Flum really should have won that. Though I forgot I also did a bunch of trembles on the same fixtures so still finished about £25 up so can't complain
 

The Bear

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Cashing out right near the last 5-10 mins of matches can make total sense. I had a £5 4-fold and I was waiting on Newcastle v Leeds. Newcastle were 1-0 up and the cash out was £6 less than the full payout. I took it with about 5 mins to go and Leeds scored a late equaliser. For that small extra amount it's not worth the risk of a late goal costing you the lot.

Oh and with Skybet you can cash out right up until the end of the match. Others like Paddypower stop at about 80 mins.

Edit - Here you go. Total possible pay out of £53. Not worth risking the lot for 8 quid more. So it is worth it sometimes!

80d6d01c8fcd5ddd39251849c0fdc88f.jpg
 

Johnny75

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Yeah but it's all designed for you to do that, the bookies would rather you cash out because of the %s that they work to. Guarantee with bets around that stake and return punters lose out on money because they cash out. Generally if you have an option to cash out and the offer is a reasonable amount it's because the selections left are likely to win so when betting is all about %s and value then cashing out when the money is not life changing will more than likely lose you money over time.

How can you lose money by cashing out? Del's lost his £5 today but could've cashed out for £65. you're obviously not going to cash out for less than your stake though as that's a loss but I've never seen a cash out less than a stake.

It's just a different perspective in that I look at what I will win rather than could win and certainly never lose.
 

slink

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How can you lose money by cashing out? Del's lost his £5 today but could've cashed out for £65. you're obviously not going to cash out for less than your stake though as that's a loss but I've never seen a cash out less than a stake.

It's just a different perspective in that I look at what I will win rather than could win and certainly never lose.

I didn't mean he would lose money in that sense i meant in the fact that if the bet came in then cashing out for £65 would have cost him over £100. If you can put the bet on then in reality you should be comfortable losing that money and in the position he was in more often than not the bet would have won so cashing out is the wrong decision. If you cashed in a bet like Del's numerous times a season you would obviously be in profit but a lot less than you would have been leaving bets to run.

Not many people imo could cash out for £65 though and then if the bet comes in not be disappointed in not letting the bet run. Cash out is designed by the bookies to tempt you in to taking less money than you really should be willing to take. Generally when people are putting accas on it's not like someone on betfair backing and laying when from the outset the objective is to secure a profit from prices shortening or drifting.
 

The Bear

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No doubt the bookies save more money overall by people taking less than they might get. But for the individual I think it makes sense to take a reasonable amount rather than risk it all.
 

Paddingtonwolf

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It isn't losing money. It is an opportunity cost, economically.
 

Tony Towner

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For anyone who is interested Bet365 have boosted Jesus to have a shot on target to Evens. Buying money?
 

Sniffer

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Only 2 on target so far. Was one Jesus?

William Hill will let you have a tenner on Liverpool at evens tomorrow. If you are so minded you can lay it and make a guaranteed fiver.

Betfred had a decent offer which may have closed now. Place a tenner on the seasons top goal scorer and get a fiver free bet for each goal they score in August.
 

MARKakaJIM

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Bet they've made a decent wedge on that offer.

Covered my loss with a Bayern, Lyon and Benfica treble.
 

Sniffer

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Only 2 on target so far. Was one Jesus?

William Hill will let you have a tenner on Liverpool at evens tomorrow. If you are so minded you can lay it and make a guaranteed fiver.

Betfred had a decent offer which may have closed now. Place a tenner on the seasons top goal scorer and get a fiver free bet for each goal they score in August.
Haaland has already paid back the initial stake with the rest of August to go.
 
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