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Live Match Discussion 2022/23

Johnny75

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Using the Imperial system to prove a point, for shame. 😂

I think the thing I find most interesting about it is that it only ever seems to be used in an attacking sense. A shot is just slightly off target? Unlucky. A defender misses a clearance by the same margin? Don't think I've ever heard luck get mentioned in that case.

At any rate, I think I just get rustled at the idea of pointing at something as ephemeral as luck as a major factor in deciding games. I get the same way (to a slightly lesser extent) when people talk about "momentum" in American football. It's impossible to measure in a standardized way.

I'm a stats boy at heart, I suppose.
Plenty of luck in football. Defenders getting the slightest touch on a striker at goal which wrong foots the keeper isn't planned for by the attacker or defender.

That's complete luck.

This is where the stats argument falls over.
 

Deutsch Wolf

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I think the thing I find most interesting about it is that it only ever seems to be used in an attacking sense. A shot is just slightly off target? Unlucky. A defender misses a clearance by the same margin? Don't think I've ever heard luck get mentioned in that case.
If a defender takes a swing at a clearance and completely misses the ball or gives it straight to an opponent then that is clearly just really shit.

Defenders can get unlucky with random bounces/deflections or if an attacker flukes their way past them.

Are you saying Kebano *wasn't* unlucky there?
 

Alan

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Personally I'd say that's a quite different scenario to the Diaz chance that kicked this off but your point isn't unheard.

I'd argue that good stats can, and, importantly, should, control for those bounces. Confounding variables, we'd call 'em. If you can control for those variables in your mind, you can set up your statistical analysis to do the same.

Now, whether or not the stats that currently exist do so as well as they can/should is another question entirely.
 

Lupo

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Playing 5aside last night I had one shot which hit the underside of the bar, bounced down and out off the goal line, another hit the post, rolled along goal line then out to keeper's hands. Did I consider myself unlucky? Too fucking right!
 

Alan

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If a defender takes a swing at a clearance and completely misses the ball or gives it straight to an opponent then that is clearly just really shit.

Defenders can get unlucky with random bounces/deflections or if an attacker flukes their way past them.

Are you saying Kebano *wasn't* unlucky there?
Yep, because, again, it's a clear shot that's totally under his control. It was close to a great goal but it wasn't, it counts for nothing.

No confounding variable at play there, no deflection or anything like that. Just a shot that wasn't as accurate as it could have been/needed to be.
 

Alan

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Would also like to be clear that for as much as I'm dying on this hill, I'm not expecting to persuade anyone here to stop thinking about the game in terms of lucky or unlucky. I don't have the time or the expertise to break down y'all's socialization that way.
 

Deutsch Wolf

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Bet you the xG for that chance (it wasn't even really a chance) was really low and it was millimetres away from coming off. Ergo, unlucky to at least some extent.

Adama wasn't unlucky when he hit the bar against Burnley last season as he was clean through with no-one near him, loads of time to think (dangerous with him, I know) and could have done anything with it.
 

Alan

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Football is about luck a lot more than people realise I think!
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AndyWolves

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I'm interested to see today's games, seeing how man United and Leicester get on will be interesting to see.
 

The Bear

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I'm not sure how any of the officials didn't think that was a blatant penalty earlier on Welbeck. Or why VAR are so scared to over-rule the refs when it's there for everyone to see.

It's becoming so obvious these days I'm more and more convinced that there's some kind of Luciano Moggi system going on in the Premier League.
 

AndyWolves

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I think I heard they'll be releasing var Comms after matches, it'll be interesting if they do for this match
 

The Bear

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I think I heard they'll be releasing var Comms after matches, it'll be interesting if they do for this match
It'll just be bullshit about "subjective decision" and "clear and obvious".

Even though all referees decisions are subjective and that it WAS clear and very obvious.
 

Paddingtonwolf

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City are without doubt the most boring side on earth to watch. I despise Pep ball. I have done since it’s first inception at Barcelona. Absolutely shite and dull.
 
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