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Melbourne looks like ‘Pyongyang by the Yarra’

Paul

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That's the figure the Victorian government published, 12 new cases and 1 death yesterday, I don't know where the per million comes from though ?
 

WolfmanOz

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Melbourne has a population of approx. 5.5 million and for Victoria it is 6.5 million (about a tenth of the UK).

In terms of land area Victoria is only slightly smaller than the whole of the UK.
 

leedswolf

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Hasn't Victoria had somewhere in the region of a total of 780 since the start of the pandemic which is about 1 death per 8,500?
 

WolfmanOz

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Hasn't Victoria had somewhere in the region of a total of 780 since the start of the pandemic which is about 1 death per 8,500?

Yes that's about right - Victoria has accounted for 90%+ of all COVID-19 related deaths in Australia.

The issue has been the bungled hotel quarantine which has caused the 2nd wave. Up to the end of June there had only been 19 deaths in Victoria, so over 750 since then, of which 98% have been in the 70+ age group and 96% of the deaths have been in aged care.
 

leedswolf

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Yes that's about right - Victoria has accounted for 90%+ of all COVID-19 related deaths in Australia.

The issue has been the bungled hotel quarantine which has caused the 2nd wave. Up to the end of June there had only been 19 deaths in Victoria, so over 750 since then, of which 98% have been in the 70+ age group and 96% of the deaths have been in aged care.
I believe the Health Minister has resigned over the hotel fiasco? An empty jesture?

Also Australia has effectively closed it's border with restrictions on any incoming travellers and a 14 day isolation programme for those who qualify for entry. This is in place until the end of October with a chance that it may carry on until the end of 2020. We were scheduled to visit family in NSW for December/January. Highly unlikely that's going to happen.
 

WolfmanOz

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I believe the Health Minister has resigned over the hotel fiasco? An empty jesture?

Also Australia has effectively closed it's border with restrictions on any incoming travellers and a 14 day isolation programme for those who qualify for entry. This is in place until the end of October with a chance that it may carry on until the end of 2020. We were scheduled to visit family in NSW for December/January. Highly unlikely that's going to happen.

All spot on mate !

The State Health Minister was always clearly out of her depth, but it goes far deeper than that. With the inquiry we’ve had into the botched hotel quarantine we’ve had a conga line of ministers, bureaucrats and the Premier saying “I know nothing” or “I can’t recall”. It’s become a launching stock.

We also aren’t even allowed to leave the country - you have to apply to a faceless bureaucrat, and if you are not a celebrity or a sportsperson you’ll get knocked back.

My mum is nearly 84 and she lives in NZ and she fears she’ll never see her family in Melbourne again.
 
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Things slowly getting back to normal here - whatever "normal" means. We had 200 new cases yesterday, zero deaths, bars are now reopening, restaurants 75% capacity (tables 6 feet apart), face masks still mandatory.

Just doing a comparison of cases:

Wolverhampton - population 250,000, cases 2142 = 857 per 100,000
San Antonio - population 2 million, cases 54207 = 2710 per 100,000

So you are much more likely to contract the virus here than over there, BUT:

deaths:
Wolverhampton 300 = 14% of all cases
San Antonio 1200 = 2.2% of all cases

so the virus is much more likely to prove fatal over there, and it has been like that for several months.
 

tredman

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Things slowly getting back to normal here - whatever "normal" means. We had 200 new cases yesterday, zero deaths, bars are now reopening, restaurants 75% capacity (tables 6 feet apart), face masks still mandatory.

Just doing a comparison of cases:

Wolverhampton - population 250,000, cases 2142 = 857 per 100,000
San Antonio - population 2 million, cases 54207 = 2710 per 100,000

So you are much more likely to contract the virus here than over there, BUT:

deaths:
Wolverhampton 300 = 14% of all cases
San Antonio 1200 = 2.2% of all cases

so the virus is much more likely to prove fatal over there, and it has been like that for several months.

That’s probably a reflection of the fact it was very difficult to get a test here at peak infection rate - so only the death rate is a measure of the actual number who had it.
 

WolfmanOz

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Interesting numbers DWF . . . for comparison here in Oz:

Victoria - population 6.5 million, cases 20,129 = 310 per 100,000
Deaths 782 = 3.9% of all cases

In Melbourne, Victoria:
For months now (since March), Melbourne residents have been in effective home detention, most businesses having been forcibly closed by government decree (many will never reopen).
Apart from the few still employed, residents are permitted to leave their home only for a single hour each day. As well, the entire metropolitan area has been under nightly curfew from 8.00pm to 5.00am (this was broadened a week back by an hour to 9.00pm to 5.00am).
Any travel apart from that required by employment (where you need a permit), is limited to 5 kilometres from home.
It is illegal to stop and talk with others in any public place, even if social distancing is being observed and masks worn.
Longest continual lockdown experienced in the world - probably at least another 4 weeks to go.

Australia - population 25 million, cases 27,016 = 108 per 100,000
Deaths 870 = 3.2% of all cases
 
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Hey Wolfman, let me ask you a question.

I find it interesting how cases vary from city to city, country to country. Victoria seems to be coping better than much of the world, but much worse than the rest of Australia. You are not a fan of your state governments actions, but do you think they have helped reduce the spread of the virus?

edit - I am not implying anything by the question.
 

WolfmanOz

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Interesting question DWF . . . and I appreciate you're not implying anything . . . best to try and analyse.

Here in Oz we were always fortunate by being an island continent and we managed to shut the borders pretty quick. It then was a case in ensuring the quarantining of returning people from overseas had to be airtight - which it was in all states except for Victoria where the State Govt totally fucked it up by employing dodgy contractors instead of the police/army, and hey presto we got a second wave, which has been catastrophic by Oz standards but still pretty mild compared to most parts of the world.

It also hasn't been helped by the Victorian state contact tracing regime that was literally at a 3rd world standard (they were still using paper and faxes) in which cases weren't traced back to their origin for well over a week whereas in the rest of the country it was taking a day.

So the State Govt panicked and went so OTT in their response with restrictions that have been the harshest in the world so far.

Do I think they have reduced the spread of the virus, well yes, but at what cost? and was such draconian measures really needed - I very much doubt it as it appeared the rate of infections were actually in decline before the State Govt. went the whole North Korean gambit.

Personally I would have focused the response/resources on the most vulnerable ie the aged care homes - which is where the vast majority of cases/deaths have been in Oz.

Yes, ensure "social" distancing, hand cleansing etc but don't lock up your healthy and productive members of society and also destroy the economy in the meantime.

The "economy" is really just a fancy word for the voluntary and mutually beneficial trade between you, me and everyone else. The "economy" is not just about businessmen, shares and property deals . . . it is about the goods and services we rely on as a society. It is through economic success that we can build/fund hospitals, schools, police etc. When to is suggested businesses just "suck it up" and not worry about the economy can you also suggest which hospitals we should close down or not build due to the fewer resources we have available? Can you offer up how much additional tax you'd be willing to contribute to help pay back the "eye-watering” COVID-19 government debt.
 
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The virus scenario is one that the scientific community has been warning about for years, yet every single government was totally unprepared for it and has screwed up its response in one way or another. There is a fine line between safeguarding the health of the people and looking after the economy, and there is still no clear consensus on goals, strategies, tactics.

In Texas we have one senior politician claiming that there are more important things than staying alive and that grandparents will happily sacrifice themselves for the economy. The right wing state governor will not permit any city to impose harsher restrictions than his, and is being criticised by his own party for mandating masks and sued for allowing a few extra days of early voting in the upcoming election. To the best of my knowledge there is no contact tracing system anywhere in the US. I have one only part-time employee and she caught the virus. Was I supposed to do anything? The guidelines were too vague so I kept my business open. A customer is an ER doctor who also contracted the virus, isolated at home for a week then went back to work without getting tested. Some of my customers live in a retirement community and have not been allowed to leave the premises for five months.

Then we also have trump, for whom re-election is the ONLY consideration.

No government was prepared for this, but it seems that more proactive ones have had more success than the reactive (right wing) ones.

Just meandering now, I should get back to work.
 

WolfmanOz

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From midnight tonight in Melbourne:

- Curfew lifted from 5 am tomorrow (probably due to the current Supreme Court bid to have it overturned - was/is very likely to succeed anyway)
- Childcare open for all
- In home child minding permitted - one career
- VCE students return from 5 October
- Primary school students return from 12 October
- 5 people can gather outside
- Exercise - 2 hours within 5 kms of your home or workplace (need to carry permit)
- Shopping - limits lifted
- Care facilities and hospitals - 1 visitor allowed per patient 2 hours per day
- Faith based outdoor gatherings of 5 plus 1 faith leader allowed
- Weddings a limit of 5 (absurd limit)

Still in a pretty hard lockdown, but still only a slight easing in restrictions, with no significant easing until late October/November as we still have to stay in our homes 22 hours a day and are limited to travel to no more than 5 kms from your home.

New infections are now running at 2-3 per million per day (80% are in aged care homes).
 

WolfmanOz

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Well today we've just hit completing our 3rd consecutive month of hard lockdown !

Next week it we will hit 100 consecutive days.

Melbourne is currently running at approx. 1-2 new cases per million - FFS !

Indictions from our Premier is that the hard lockdown will continue well into November - this is now becoming almost unbearable.
 

Alan

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I guess I'm not sure what the alternative is. Until there's a safe vaccine, removing the lockdown will mean outbreaks. There's not a ton of grey area with that.
 

Lupo

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A lad (well bloke now!) that I was at school with now lives in Melbourne and has posted this on Facebook (not sure I've ever known him to swear before):

Still the most relevant song I’m playing right now. Fuck you Chadstone. Fuck you selfish cunts that continue to force us to stick to these oppressive fucking conditions. Fuckety fucksticks get me the fuck out of here.
 

WolfmanOz

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100th consecutive day of hard lockdown now reached in Melbourne !

Bar the 5 weeks in June, we have been in hard lockdown since late March - that's near enough to 200 days ! ! !

Current new case are at 0.1 per 100,000 (which seems to be the measure you guys are using in the UK).

There might be some relief this coming Sunday, as the Victorian Premier is now under increasing pressure to lighten the burden on the state - especially as the investigation into the hotel quarantine saga (which caused our 2nd wave) is now proving to be extremely damning on him and his Govt.

Recently passed manslaughter laws (by his Govt) put him, his ministers and public servants squarely in the gun to be charged - and there's so many pissed off people and businesses that have made the necessary complaints to the relevant authorities. It's very serious for them; evidenced by their memory losses of "I don't recall" or "I have no recollection" at the inquiry which is now being forensically examined by other parties (not the inquiry) which has recently led to the resignation of the Health Minister and the Premier's most senior public servant.
 

Dublin Drummer Wolf

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100th consecutive day of hard lockdown now reached in Melbourne !

Bar the 5 weeks in June, we have been in hard lockdown since late March - that's near enough to 200 days ! ! !

Current new case are at 0.1 per 100,000 (which seems to be the measure you guys are using in the UK).

There might be some relief this coming Sunday, as the Victorian Premier is now under increasing pressure to lighten the burden on the state - especially as the investigation into the hotel quarantine saga (which caused our 2nd wave) is now proving to be extremely damning on him and his Govt.

Recently passed manslaughter laws (by his Govt) put him, his ministers and public servants squarely in the gun to be charged - and there's so many pissed off people and businesses that have made the necessary complaints to the relevant authorities. It's very serious for them; evidenced by their memory losses of "I don't recall" or "I have no recollection" at the inquiry which is now being forensically examined by other parties (not the inquiry) which has recently led to the resignation of the Health Minister and the Premier's most senior public servant.

100 days in a row!!! Jesus....

If the R rate has been reduced to 0.1, why not lift it?
 
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