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Trump

The Bear

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I read this on Quora which seems a decent summary:

"What they did for Trump that’s relevant here is they gave him steroids. Steroids suppress the immune system. In the early stage of the disease, it’s your own immune system that’s causing most of the problem. It inflames the lungs, fills them with fluid, and even starts damaging healthy cells.

Steroids turn all the alert systems off. No inflammation, and no killer cells attacking your lungs. You feel better.

However, to use a clumsy metaphor, what the steroids do is they turn off the loud annoying alarms that generally go off during a fire. Now you can get some sleep and get some work done without being annoyed by the flashing lights and loud noise.

Of course, the fire is still there or, in this case, the coronavirus. While a patient is on steroids, the disease doesn’t trigger an immune response. It just goes about its merry way destroying lung cells to make copies of itself.

So, a few days later, when the steroids wear off, the symtoms come back with a vengeance. Giving the patient steroids at this point has a lesser effect and also allows the disease to grow unchecked without pesky killer cells and antibodies trying to fight it.

My dad was on steroids for his pulmonary fibrosis for the last few months of his life. He felt great, but he was dying inside. His heart gave out within a few months of starting them. In that stage, he couldn’t come off them without his lungs pretty much shutting down entirely.

So I’m not hopeful for Mr. Trump at this point."
 

Deutsch Wolf

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Incidentally, for all the concern about him getting a sympathy-based rise in support, he's actually drifting in the polls.
 

Paddingtonwolf

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He’s 16 points down in some of the swing states. Its a collapse. And it looks like Biden is at over 50% in those so undecideds aren’t going to save him. Good. It needs to be a total landslide so he can’t blert about vote rigging.
 

proslo

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I don't think everyone is using it as the evidence for assuming he'd get a sympathy boost, but there does seem to be some widespread misunderstanding about what happened with Johnson when he got it. The Tories were already near the peak of the early crisis poll boost that they and nearly every other political party in charge, left or right, across the world got at the same time, and there wasn't really anywhere else to get more support from by the time he was in the ICU - it might have prolonged the plateau, but really it's hard to tell, and polling fell back down fairly sharpish after to previous levels.

And I say "nearly every" in that sentence because Trump and the GOP were one of the rare examples of a leader and party not getting a boost. I don't really see how him getting it now will do anything to engender electoral sympathy to the majority of the country that's hated him since he got into office and which still consistently hates him, even if many people don't actually want him dead (somehow).
 

Lupo

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I follow John Schneider (yee-haaaaaaa) on Facebook. Its becoming clear that he is a Trump supporter and has called for like minded folk to boycott everything Robert De Niro due to the latter's outspoken criticism of Chump. I have been reading some of the replies which are depressing and predictable - to many, Chump is God and can do no wrong, his 'miraculous recovery' only reinforcing his deity and De Niro is seen as the devil incarnate for his cruel bashing of the great President and hated by the Chumpettes
 
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trump is running a tv ad here. No presidential candidate has ever run tv ads in TX since I moved here, it was always a given that TX votes republican. So trump is getting worried.

And in true trump fashion the ad is palpably dishonest - featuring background images of elderly white people while he boasts of how he has secured the future of social security and medicare. Most people actually believe the opposite.

If pensions is the only thing he can run on after 4 years in office, then he is really in trouble.
 

Paddingtonwolf

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If the current polling pans out he is going to get pummelled by Biden for the White House and the Democrats are going to win both houses.
 

Tony Towner

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People are suggesting a Walter Mondale style battering, which given some red States is impossible, but it's not going to be particularly close.
 

Alan

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It had damn well better not be.

The cynic in me says he'll still somehow win, though.
 

Deutsch Wolf

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If he cheats on a massive scale he might. Otherwise something very odd would need to happen and very quickly.
 

Lupo

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He's bragging that he has beaten Covid and the drugs he used will be offered free. Less than a week since he tested positive and was taken to hospital. Bullshit
 

Del Woppio

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When are you going to learn that you can't trust polls, lads :icon_lol: as with brexit, and the last one here and in the US, people are embarrassed to be voting for the option that they know is viewed as selfish/stupid, and so they don't admit it to pollsters their true voting intentions
 

Sedgley Wolf

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I don't think the percentage of people who do that is very high at all. Why would people lie in a largely anonymous poll?

While it might be enough to mislead the polls on a tight vote like Brexit, I'd like to think the gap between the two this time around will be too much, even accounting for these people.

Fingers crossed...
 

Tony Towner

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Nah, this one is different. In all of the others you mentioned even though the results weren't predicted the polls closed the closer to election day. These are going the other way, I predicted Brexit and a big Tory majority in the last election, the shock isn't happening this time. I thought it would a few months ago, but he's fucked too much up since for that to happen.
 

Langers

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Even though Biden is hardly a decent candidate himself, I am SO tempted to get up very early the day after election day just because I am so overdue a positive election result.

Don't fuck it up, Joe....
 

Tony Towner

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Even though Biden is hardly a decent candidate himself, I am SO tempted to get up very early the day after election day just because I am so overdue a positive election result.

Don't fuck it up, Joe....
Without wishing to rain on your morning parade, you are unlikely to get that I'm afraid. The Dems have a high proportion of mail in ballots which won't have been counted by then, it's likely that Trump will be ahead in the early count
 

Langers

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Without wishing to rain on your morning parade, you are unlikely to get that I'm afraid. The Dems have a high proportion of mail in ballots which won't have been counted by then, it's likely that Trump will be ahead in the early count

Ah - a lie in it is, then!
 
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