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Ukraine

Wilf Wolf

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What are your thoughts on how it will play out? I think Russian air superiority will lead to a pretty rapid occupation of the whole of Ukraine. The West will impose sanctions which will have no significant effect and Ukraine will end up a
with a puppet Government delivering exactly what Putin wants.

In time, say four years, the West will come to accept it, sanctions will wither and Putin will move on with recreating the Soviet Union probably by targeting Moldova.
 

Paddingtonwolf

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Moldova allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory on the border of Ukraine. It’s Putin-friendly. He will be after the Baltic states next.
 

Tony Towner

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I think we're too late for any none military response to have a significant impact. Various countries in the West over the last number of years have:
Let oligarchs wash their money through their banks
Taken large donations for it's political parties
Become reliant on their energy
Turned an effective blind eye to Crimea
Allowed disinformation on their social media platforms
Allowed their elections to be corrupted and then refused to properly investigate
Made no real impact when people have been murdered by the Russsian State on their shores

This latest action has been enabled by all of the above.
 

Sniffer

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Moldova allowed Russian troops to be stationed in its territory on the border of Ukraine. It’s Putin-friendly. He will be after the Baltic states next.
The Baltic states are all part of Nato. If he tries to go in there then heaven knows what will happen.
 
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Dire Wolf

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The Western super powers have created this situation. When the Berlin Wall came down, Gorbachev was promised by the US, British, German and French governments that NATO wouldn't get "one inch closer to Moscow". That was clearly lies and now Russia is pushing back. As soon as NATO started expanding East the seeds were planted for this. It just took a psycho like Putin to water those seeds.

And all the while the Tory Party has been getting funding from a plethora of Russian oligarchs in order to buy their complete apathy in response.

You reap want you sow.
 

Johnny75

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There's some bullshit on this thread.

The only person responsible for the invasion of the Ukraine is Putin. He's the aggressor and anybody thinking NATO is the aggressor is drinking the Russian Koolaid.

People blaming the West are frankly stupid.
 

Wilf Wolf

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The lack of sanctions and turning a blind eye to Russian money flooding in has certainly made things easier for Putin. It’s amazing how easy politicians can be bought by a few donations.

Putin claims NATO is the problem but from the other side of the fence I’m certain the populations of Rumania and Poland are glad they became members. Unless there is change from within Russia I think we’re entering a second Cold War and it won’t be good for anyone except Putin and his close cronies. I hope I’m wrong about them over-running Ukraine in days if not weeks as there’s nothing going to change the Russian people’s attitude than a large stream of dead Russians arriving home.
 

Newbridge Wolf

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Eastern European countries joining Nato (let's not forget its origins) locating weapons on Russias doorstep.

Ukraine a tactical warm port, Russia felt 'entitled' to ensure it remained in their hands. Putins latest threats are possibly posturing, maybe for the new Gas line, maybe just flexing their military power.

Russian money is awash in European economies, Cyprus being pretty much owned by them

The world's a mess, but when hasn't it been.
 

Wilf Wolf

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The Western super powers have created this situation. When the Berlin Wall came down, Gorbachev was promised by the US, British, German and French governments that NATO wouldn't get "one inch closer to Moscow". That was clearly lies and now Russia is pushing back. As soon as NATO started expanding East the seeds were planted for this. It just took a psycho like Putin to water those seeds.

And all the while the Tory Party has been getting funding from a plethora of Russian oligarchs in order to buy their complete apathy in response.

You reap want you sow.
This interpretation would make sense if there was any evidence whatsoever that NATO is anything other than a defensive organisation. You know it and Putin knows it and he’s just using it as a pretext to justify his ambitions of recreating a Soviet Union Mk2.
 

WolfMan

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I blame Putin for the invasion, it is inexcusable. But you do have to look at the overall historical context of what's made it possible. If you ask yourself how would England react had we lost the cold war and Wales became independent, then a Soviet Union alliance spent the next 30 years expanding west accross Europe until it was next door and Wales wanted to join it, would we allow it? Or how would America react to a Soviet Union alliance in Canada and Mexico.
 

The Saturday Boy

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It is alarming that a national leader can take military action on a false pretext and now Putin is doing the same.

This has been over a century in the making and has been inevitable ever since Ukraine began it's courtship with the EU and NATO. And while no Western Leader is currently suggesting a military response, I don't understand how this squares up with Article 5 of the NATO treaty

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all​


The very idea of admitting Ukraine, a country engaged in a ongoing conflict with it's superpower neighbour, has given Putin (who I don't believe is completely sane) all he needs to agitate, militarise and ultimately "come to the rescue" of separatists. And while he has been doing this, the West has profited from and welcomed Russian money that has close ties to the Kremlin.

Our only options are to financially punish Russia while at the same time causing harm to ourselves. Meanwhile, China will step in and mitigate the financial impacts on Russia while the West stands by impotent.

The West (Europe and the US) have been so busy gazing at their own naval the last 10 years that it has failed to deal with an obvious threat in any effective way and now I don't think there is anything the West can do that will make any material difference at all because there is no way that we will get involved in Ukraine in a military sense.
 

Johnny75

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I blame Putin for the invasion, it is inexcusable. But you do have to look at the overall historical context of what's made it possible. If you ask yourself how would England react had we lost the cold war and Wales became independent, then a Soviet Union alliance spent the next 30 years expanding west accross Europe until it was next door and Wales wanted to join it, would we allow it? Or how would America react to a Soviet Union alliance in Canada and Mexico.
NATO is a defensive organisation. Doesn't matter how many people join it, the purpose is to prevent attack.

Russia are doing the invading not NATO and NATO has never attacked a sovereign country as it isn't looking to invade anywhere.
 

Wilf Wolf

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It is alarming that a national leader can take military action on a false pretext and now Putin is doing the same.

This has been over a century in the making and has been inevitable ever since Ukraine began it's courtship with the EU and NATO. And while no Western Leader is currently suggesting a military response, I don't understand how this squares up with Article 5 of the NATO treaty


The very idea of admitting Ukraine, a country engaged in a ongoing conflict with it's superpower neighbour, has given Putin (who I don't believe is completely sane) all he needs to agitate, militarise and ultimately "come to the rescue" of separatists. And while he has been doing this, the West has profited from and welcomed Russian money that has close ties to the Kremlin.

Our only options are to financially punish Russia while at the same time causing harm to ourselves. Meanwhile, China will step in and mitigate the financial impacts on Russia while the West stands by impotent.

The West (Europe and the US) have been so busy gazing at their own naval the last 10 years that it has failed to deal with an obvious threat in any effective way and now I don't think there is anything the West can do that will make any material difference at all because there is no way that we will get involved in Ukraine in a military sense.
Given this I’m not sure why NATO didn’t rule out Ukraine joining. If we were calling Russia’s bluff it failed miserably.
 

WolfMan

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NATO is a defensive organisation. Doesn't matter how many people join it, the purpose is to prevent attack.

Russia are doing the invading not NATO and NATO has never attacked a sovereign country as it isn't looking to invade anywhere.
Would you take the Soviet Union's word for it in the scenario above? Also NATO invaded Afghanistan.
 

proslo

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It's the pre-USSR Russian Empire that Putin wants to reclaim, not "recreate the USSR". It's a very important distinction.

The USSR was dominated by Russia but the Soviets were the ones that set up the republics that surrounded it like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, etc. The ealy Bolsheviks were largely an alliance of separatist ethnic nationalist movements in those regions and an urban working class revolutionary movement (or "vanguard", I guess more accurately). The Tsars spent centuries trying to wipe out rebels in places like Ukraine, but the Soviets did the complete opposite - they gave them their own republics within the wider Soviet Union, legally an equal with Russia (even if in practice, as I say, it was Russia-dominated).

Putin was very explicit in his speech earlier this week that he blames Lenin for giving people like the Ukrainians what he considers to be an illegitimate right to independence. He wants to redraw the map of Eurasia, back to 1917, when they knew their place. It's also central to the whole "NATO is expanding into 'our' part of Europe" issue - clearly Russia is the aggressor here, but as far as the Russian nationalists in the Kremlin are concerned NATO has got in and claimed those countries before Russia could reabsorb them.
 

EdgeOfTheAlps

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Given this I’m not sure why NATO didn’t rule out Ukraine joining. If we were calling Russia’s bluff it failed miserably.


Because it is the right of any sovereign nation to apply to join any organisation it wishes?
 

WolfMan

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No. Some members of NATO invaded Afghanistan


In 2001, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) created the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), backed by the United Nations (UN). Their initial role was to secure Kabul, the Afghan capital. By April 2002 there were 1,700 British soldiers working alongside other NATO allies.
 

Del Woppio

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The only two choices are we let him take Ukraine, or NATO/members off effectively go to war with a nuclear power. That's it. Sanctions and condemnations to Russia are what thoughts and prayers are to mass shootings in America.
 

EdgeOfTheAlps

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In 2001, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) created the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), backed by the United Nations (UN). Their initial role was to secure Kabul, the Afghan capital. By April 2002 there were 1,700 British soldiers working alongside other NATO allies.

In reaction to an attack on US soil by an organisation in Afghanistan and tolerated and harboured by the defacto Afghan government.
 
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