I've gone 11-13. Barring a disaster with injuries I don't see us being in any trouble of going down. There's a lot of poor sides in this league, and would take something spectacularly bad to get in a relegation scrap
I've gone top half as I've been enthused by our playing style in pre-season. I personally think that our 2 7th placed finishes were actually slight underperformances with the squad we had and while we have been weakened since then by a succession of terrible transfer windows and a downgrade in the coaching team, this new style will actually get more out of a still seriously talented group.
This comes with a few caveats though, the first being that because of our lack of depth if we suffer a few losses in key areas then we will struggle.
If Kilman or Collins pick up an injury and we have to play Coady/Boly for extended periods of the season then we're going to struggle to make this new higher line work. In that scenario we'd take a few pastings, quickly revert back to the slow, safe football of the last 2 seasons and it'd be another wasted season.
In central midfield we have a significant drop off in quality after Neves & Moutinho, if we don't add to our midfield options then we're going to be asking a lot of them to stay available for the full season (we've reached the point in the transfer window where I think it'd be impossible to sell Neves now as well, if Rúben goes then we realistically need 2 top half quality central midfielders and anyone who knows anything about our recent recruitment can tell you that won't happen).
Last one is the obvious lack of depth up front. If Raúl can stay fit and the rest of the team can keep playing as high up the pitch as they have done recently then he'll have a great season. If we have to play Podence, Hwang or Adama up front for significant parts of the season we will struggle to pick up points though. You'd maybe get away with playing Podence there for the odd game but that's it. We need to recruit quality in this position.
Limiting Hwang's game time will be important as well. There's enough quality in wide areas now that he shouldn't be getting anywhere near the team but our manager makes weird decisions sometimes, especially in regards to Hwang. I think best case scenario is that he barely plays this season and ends up going to increasingly poor Bundesliga teams on loan until his contract expires and he signs for Grasshoppers on a free transfer.