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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #3841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rui_CostCo View Post
    Implications of Different Coronavirus Exit Strategies

    Attachment 2710

    1) Lockdown until a vaccine

    Very difficult to maintain lockdown once case numbers shrink, let alone for 12-18 months. The economy could shrink by a third - which would mean millions unemployed for months, and huge permanent damage to the economy.

    2) Ease off measures once case numbers fall

    What we seem to have learned in recent weeks is that, without other tools, nothing except full lockdown works to prevent another jump in cases

    3) 'Adaptive triggering' - switching measures on and off when cases rise/fall

    This is essentially the default in any case. But it's little use. Imperial estimates lockdown would be needed 2/3 of the time. The health cost would be large and economic benefits minimal

    4) 'Immunity permits' for people who've had the virus

    If only 10% of the population have had CV19, it's hard to see a policy of keeping the other 90% in lockdown as fair or possible. Economic benefits minimal.

    5) Weekly testing

    Some have proposed a weekly testing regime for the entire country. This could work. But it's a huge logistical challenge. Viable within 6 months

    6) Contact tracing and mass testing

    App-based contact tracing combined with large-scale testing seems like the most plausible option that could be available within weeks. Singapore's TraceTogether app is anonymous and doesn't track location, but instantly alerts people at risk. For it to work we'd need high app coverage - the large majority of people - and easily-accessible testing. Currently Singapore's app appears only to have 20% take-up. Getting higher coverage shouldn't be hard if it's the only way out of lockdown

    Conclusion

    6 seems like best hope for exiting lockdown by summer. Combined with regional variation and continued strict rules for the most at-risk group

    Suppression Exit Strategies Ian Mulheirn Executive Director and Chief Economist Tony Blair Institute For Global Change

    About the Author

    Ian Mulheirn is the Executive Director and Chief Economist of Renewing the Centre at the Tony Blair Institute. He was previously Director of Consulting at Oxford Economics, a global economic consulting company, and Director of the Social Market Foundation, a Westminster public policy think tank specialising in economic research and policy design. Prior to that Ian was an economist at HM Treasury
    6 seems like the best option. They'd need to be on their definition of those most at risk though.
    When asked to name her greatest achievement Thatcher replied: 'Tony Blair and New Labour.'

  2. #3842
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    Anyone knows the number of new cases today?

  3. #3843
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    Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWolves View Post
    Anyone knows the number of new cases today?
    Edit - weirdness.

    Not been announced yet I think.
    .
    )

  4. #3844
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWolves View Post
    Anyone knows the number of new cases today?
    All i've seen is 758 new deaths in England, 19 in Wales. From BBC news website.

  5. #3845
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deutsch Wolf View Post
    The figures are worse in reality, of course:



    I do very much hope that the prediction of this peaking inside the next week holds true.
    Fuck me. I had no idea that there were so many out of hospital deaths attributed to covid. Tbh I thought we'd never know, especially amongst the elderly
    The Formula is dead. Long live The Criteria!

  6. #3846
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    As of 9am 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded, with 14,006 tests on 6 April.

    213,181 people have been tested of which 55,242 tested positive.

    As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have sadly died.


    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...intensive-care

  7. #3847
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sniffer Grouse View Post
    851 deaths being reported today in England, Scotland and Wales.

    854 in total after Northern Ireland announced a further 3 deaths.

    The amount of deaths is frightening. Think of all of the major disasters in the UK in your lifetime and then look at the deaths from Coronavirus over the last week.
    Is this not right then?

    Metro are reporting it.

    https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/07/uk-de...ives-12522065/

  8. #3848
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    Quote Originally Posted by tredman View Post
    Why don’t you do likewise. This is really boring and adds nothing to a serious topic.
    I think it actually would if some people could actually debate without being rude and taking on a ' higher than thou ' attitude.

  9. #3849
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    The figures for deaths is different to that reported earlier.

    The Department for Health and Social Care has issued its latest update on hospital coronavirus deaths in the UK. It gives the latest daily for the number of deaths is 786, taking the total number of UK hospital deaths to 6,159.

    From the Guardian Live Page

    We will get an official UK figure from the Department of Health and Social Care later. As Nadine White at HuffPost points out, there is normally a slight difference between the official UK total and the figure produced by the combination of the separate figures for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. That is because some of the reporting criteria differ. Yesterday the official DHSC figure for new UK deaths was 439.

  10. #3850
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sniffer Grouse View Post
    As of 9am 7 April, 266,694 tests have concluded, with 14,006 tests on 6 April.

    213,181 people have been tested of which 55,242 tested positive.

    As of 5pm on 6 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 6,159 have sadly died.


    https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status...intensive-care
    3,600 positive tests today, that figure has fallen again

  11. #3851
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    Am I correct in saying that the amount of tests have fallen from 16,000 to 14,000.

  12. #3852
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWolves View Post
    3,600 positive tests today, that figure has fallen again
    How many tested?

  13. #3853
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant Pyjamas View Post
    How many tested?
    The assumption i'm making is that the criteria to actually warrant a test isn't changing day-by-day.

    If you got a test last week you'd be getting a test this week

  14. #3854
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    A crucial figure that I wish they'd report is how many hospital admissions there are. That's probably the only real metric we can use to understand the impact of the social distancing measures.
    The Formula is dead. Long live The Criteria!

  15. #3855
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    Quote Originally Posted by Del Woppio View Post
    A crucial figure that I wish they'd report is how many hospital admissions there are. That's probably the only real metric we can use to understand the impact of the social distancing measures.
    Isn't that what the new cases figure is? People who've gone to hospital and tested positive for Covid19?

  16. #3856
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWolves View Post
    The assumption i'm making is that the criteria to actually warrant a test isn't changing day-by-day.

    If you got a test last week you'd be getting a test this week
    Would the NHS workers be included in the figures?

  17. #3857
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sniffer Grouse View Post
    Would the NHS workers be included in the figures?
    Dunno, but provided the criteria for test qualification doesn't change I still think it can be used to look at trends even if we don't use the figure as a quantitative measure

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    Quote Originally Posted by Templeton Peck View Post
    6 seems like the best option. They'd need to be on their definition of those most at risk though.
    Option 6 is likely to fail due to the human a aspect. In a climate where there are people raging about 5G causing Coronavirus and that a vaccine will cause their every movement to be tracked.

    No one will believe the app isn't being used to track them and then add in those without smartphones etc. Which is roughly 11% of the population (according to an unverified website I just googled...)
    "FFS Costa" with or without an apostrophe?

  19. #3859
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    Quote Originally Posted by AndyWolves View Post
    Isn't that what the new cases figure is? People who've gone to hospital and tested positive for Covid19?
    Not necessarily, I mean as of Saturday Boris himself registered 1 on the positive cases and 0 on the hospital admissions.
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  20. #3860
    Quote Originally Posted by Elephant Pyjamas View Post
    How many tested?
    This is updated daily at 2pm from official figures released by@DHSCgovuk and @PHE_UK on Twitter and GOV.UK website

    Numbers, Totals, %'s and more

    The additional tabs to the main are worth looking at, for stats on bed availablity, Wording changes that affect calculations etc -

  21. #3861
    Quote Originally Posted by Aikiwolf View Post
    Option 6 is likely to fail due to the human a aspect. In a climate where there are people raging about 5G causing Coronavirus and that a vaccine will cause their every movement to be tracked.

    No one will believe the app isn't being used to track them and then add in those without smartphones etc. Which is roughly 11% of the population (according to an unverified website I just googled...)
    Don't disagree, but them's the options, that's the implications, that's the effect

  22. #3862
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deutsch Wolf View Post
    Not necessarily, I mean as of Saturday Boris himself registered 1 on the positive cases and 0 on the hospital admissions.
    I'd argue that's a statistical insignificance, we don't know for sure that Boris was included in the +ive case count and if he is it's unlikely that this is happening on a significant scale. Maybe 10-20 at most per day?

  23. #3863
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rui_CostCo View Post
    Don't disagree, but them's the options, that's the implications, that's the effect
    I don't really agree with the limited analysis in the excerpt (only on gut feeling). I think a hybrid of adaptive triggering and the app and maybe one of the testing regimes is a much more nuanced and useful tool. His segregation into distinct options makes it look like the options would only work in isolation imo.
    "FFS Costa" with or without an apostrophe?

  24. #3864
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    On a slightly different note,that well known turquoise tracksuit wearing nut job David Icke has claimed that coronavirus communicates using the 5g phone network,and that's how it's spread so quickly,the vaccine will contain trackers to control the human race,and it's all bill gates fault.
    As I said well known nutjob
    See post #5516 of ex wolf watch to find out why in my house,i hate Kenny Miller

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    Kevin Maguire on Twitter:
    "Stinging admission of failure in CMO Chris Whitty admitting "Germany got ahead on testing" for Covid-19 and the UK can learn from that. Might've saved lives here which is why Ministers are in denial"

  26. #3866
    Quote Originally Posted by Keef View Post
    On a slightly different note,that well known turquoise tracksuit wearing nut job David Icke has claimed that coronavirus communicates using the 5g phone network,and that's how it's spread so quickly,the vaccine will contain trackers to control the human race,and it's all bill gates fault.
    As I said well known nutjob
    which FINALLY made youtube and Instagram take action against nut bar conspiracy posts and reposts limiting the number of times they're forwarded to prevent them going viral.

    I always remembered him as ex-goalkeeper preventing the local sports news on tv. Until he pronounced himself to be 'The Son of God' live on the Wogan show. Most conspiracy nutters I've ever spoken with are heavily anti religion so I've never really understood why on earth the listen to him


  27. #3867
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Towner View Post
    Kevin Maguire on Twitter:
    "Stinging admission of failure in CMO Chris Whitty admitting "Germany got ahead on testing" for Covid-19 and the UK can learn from that. Might've saved lives here which is why Ministers are in denial"
    I'm becoming more and more impressed with Professor Witty. He's grown into the live broadcasts from his initial rabbit in the headlights appearance and doesn't seem prepared to compromise his Global reputation by either supporting or applying any spin to his own personal opinions. If the message going out includes any subtle inaccuracies he usually corrects them and if he feels the message going out needs calming down or needs an injection of realism and caution he says so. He's starting to look very much like our version of Tony Fauci

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