20 goal a season striker theory

[big mean bunny]

So I keep seeing that we need a 20 goal a season striker to get promoted. I decided to look into this. This is literally raw Maths and stats and just on 20 goal a season strikers, not looking at anything else around that; however here it is.

I decided to look back to when we were last promoted, in 2008/09. As felt that like a nice cut off point at 9 seasons.

During those 9 seasons there have been 36 players hit 20 goals or more, Glenn Murray hit 30 being the highest, and several hitting bang on 20. The mean (average) is 22.5 for those 36.

Of those 36, 15 were on teams promoted, meaning 21 were not. Of those 21, 17 missed out on the playoffs altogether.

Of the 15 promoted, 5 played for the team that finished first, 7 played for the runners up, interestingly Burnley had Vokes (20) and Ings (21) and Watford had Deeney (21) Ignahlo (20) whilst finishing runner up. Blackburn also had Rhodes and Gestede hit 21 and 20 whilst missing the playoffs and finishing 9th.


Statistically, drawing data from what I would call the most recent history of the league. A 20 goal a season striker is not the mythical talisman people have convinced themselves it is.


Total 36
Times promoted 15 41.67% (Champions 5, Runners up 7, Playoff winners 3)
failed promotion 21 58.33%
missed playoffs 17 47.22%

Total promoted sides 27
W/20+ striker 13

 

[big mean bunny]

2016/17 Name
Chris wood
Tammy Abraham
Dwight Gayle
Glenn Murray

2015/16 Andre Gray
Ross McCormack
Abel Hernandez

2014/15 Daryl Murphy
Troy Deeney
Jordan Rhodes
Rudy Gestede
Ighalo
Callum Wilson

2013/2014 Ross McCormack
Jordan Rhodes
Troy Deeney
Lewis Graban
Danny Ings
Chris Martin
Dave Nugent
Sam Vokes

2012/2013 Glenn Murray
Jordan Rhodes
Charlie Austin
Matěj Vydra
Chris Wood

2011/2012 Ricky Lambert
Ricardo Vaz Te

2010/11 Danny Graham
Grant Holt
Shane Long

2009/2010 Nicky Maynard
Peter Whitingham

2008/2009 Ebanks-Blake
Ross McCormack
Jason Scotland


doesn't seem to have brought the numbers in but will see if I can get them in tomorrow (if anyone cares!)

 

[Johnny75]

I think a meaningful stat to back this would be how many teams got promoted without a 20 goal player.

 

[PuntsWolf]

Would your assessment not be more useful if you assessed how many of the promoted teams did/didn't have a 20 goal/season striker?

 

[big mean bunny]

Sorry I am being thick, can you explain what you mean? I was going to have a look through next to see what the top scorer was for all the sides promoted during that time. For example I've mentioned this before but in 12/13 Hull who came 2nd, had a top scorer who only got 9 goals, I also spotted West Brom with 14 during one of their promotion campaigns, so I wanted to chart that.


EDIT - literally after posting this my dyslexic fog cleared and know what J75 means now.

 

[darlowolf64]

I think a meaningful stat to back this would be how many teams got promoted without a 20 goal player.

I would say 12...
9 x Seasons would equal 27 teams promoted. If 15 teams that went up had a 20 goal striker then 12 didn't (I think)

 

[MARKakaJIM]

Yeah number of goals for promoted teams scorers would be a more useful way of looking at it rather than picking 20+ scoring players and seeing where they finish.

 

[Deleted Cyber]

That's all good until you look at what we seem to be trying to achieve
Better keeper ..... Tick
Better defence....... Tick
Better midfield......tick
Better creativity..... Tick
Better finisher..... Nope not yet

Last season dicko could and should have had half a dozen more goals but that still leaves him single figure s. If you look at our capability and add a striker who scores 20 goals I would be amazed if we were not top 2. That ability to score is one area that we still look short on for me. If we keep clean sheets at the current rate we will break the record so let's be cautious and say we will keep 20. That's still amazing. 20 clean sheets and a 40 goal front three and we will be very very close

 

[big mean bunny]

So added in Johhny's suggestion, will need to chart the top scorer per team tomorrow as I can't find an efficient way of getting that stat other than wikipedia and filtering per season.#

Anyway of the 27 teams promoted, 13 had at least one striker with a 20 goal season. Worth nothing that 6 of the last 9 promoted sides did have 20+.

 

[big mean bunny]

That's all good until you look at what we seem to be trying to achieve
Better keeper ..... Tick
Better defence....... Tick
Better midfield......tick
Better creativity..... Tick
Better finisher..... Nope not yet

Last season dicko could and should have had half a dozen more goals but that still leaves him single figure s. If you look at our capability and add a striker who scores 20 goals I would be amazed if we were not top 2. That ability to score is one area that we still look short on for me. If we keep clean sheets at the current rate we will break the record so let's be cautious and say we will keep 20. That's still amazing. 20 clean sheets and a 40 goal front three and we will be very very close

Like I said I was just looking at the striker theory. Newcastle when they set the record points total did not have a 20 goal player for example, Nolan 17, Carroll 17, Lovernkrands 13, Ameobi 10, being their top scorers.

 

[SLB]

With all due respect what is a 20 goal for season striker?

Diego Costa was in Portugal for a couple of seasons and didn't manage to score 10 goals.

Our great Jonas scored an average of 10 goals a season in Spain and in Benfica he is on about 90 goals in 3 years.

Football is not perfect maths...

 

[big mean bunny]

With all due respect what is a 20 goal for season striker?

Diego Costa was in Portugal for a couple of seasons and didn't manage to score 10 goals.

Our great Jonas scored an average of 10 goals a season in Spain and in Benfica he is on about 90 goals in 3 years.

Football is not perfect maths...

Like I said above:

Statistically, drawing data from what I would call the most recent history of the league. A 20 goal a season striker is not the mythical talisman people have convinced themselves it is.

 

[Lycan]

With all due respect what is a 20 goal for season striker?

Diego Costa was in Portugal for a couple of seasons and didn't manage to score 10 goals.

Our great Jonas scored an average of 10 goals a season in Spain and in Benfica he is on about 90 goals in 3 years.

Football is not perfect maths...

Well we play 46 league games a season, you play 34. 20 goals is considered a bit of a benchmark for a prolific striker in this league. Bit of a nonsense really but it is what it is.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Kenny Miller got 24 for us in 2002/3 and 20 in 2004/5. Didn't stop him getting all manner of (unfair) stick...

 

[FrankMunro-371]

I do not think anyone has said we need a twenty goals a season striker, more that we just need a striker.

 

[big mean bunny]

Bit like how those demanding a 20 goal a season striker would no doubt moaned if we signed Jason Scotland (who I think we've been linked with historically?) Even though he is 'technically' what some fans demand.

 

[big mean bunny]

I do not think anyone has said we need a twenty goals a season striker, more that we just need a striker.

Not neccessarily on here but I've seen it several places today alone, and it isnt even a Wolves thing and effects Premiership fans too.

 

[darlowolf64]

Yeah number of goals for promoted teams scorers would be a more useful way of looking at it rather than picking 20+ scoring players and seeing where they finish.

I'm on nights and clearly have too much time on my hands but...

2008/09 Season;
1st; Wolves. For 80, Against 52; S.E.B 25, Chris Iwelumo 14, Michael Kightly 8
2nd; Birmingham City. For 54, Against 37; Kevin Phillips 14, Cameron Jerome 9 Garry O'Connor6
5th; Burnley. For72, Against 60; Martin Paterson 12, Graham Alexander 9, Robbie Blake 8
Other top scorers; 21 Ross McCormack, Cardiff (7th) 21 Jason Scotland, Swansea (8th) 18 Kevin Doyle Reading (4th) 16 Tommy Smith Watford (13th)

2009/10 Season
1st; Newcastle United. For 90, Against 35; Kevin Nolan 17, Peter Lovenkrants 13, Shola Ameobi 10
2nd; West Bromwich. For 89, Against 48; Chris Brunt 13, Graham Dorrans 12, Roman Bednar 10
6th; Blackpool. For 74, Against 58; Charlie Adam 16, Brett Ormerod 11, DJ Campbell 8
Other top scorers; 22 Peter Whittingham, Cardiff (4th); 20 Nicky Maynard, Bristol City (10th) 19 Gary Hooper, Scunthorpe (20th) 18 Michael Chopra Cardiff (4th)

2010/11 Season
1st; Q.P.R. For 71, Against 32; Abel Taarbt 19, Heider Helguson 13, Jamie Mackie 9
2nd; Norwich. For 83, Against 58; Grant Holt 21, Simeon Jackson 13, Wes Hoolahan 10
3rd; Swansea. For 69, Against 42; Scott Sinclair 19, Stephen Dobbie 9, Darren Pratley 9
Other top scorers; 24 Danny Graham Watford (14th) 21 Shane Long Reading (5th) 19 Luciano Becchio Leeds (7th) 18 Jay Bothroyd Cardiff (4th) Max Gradel Leeds

2011/12 Season
1st; Reading. For 69, Against 41; Adan LeFondre 12, Simon Church 7, Jason Roberts 6
2nd; Southampton. For 85, Against 46; Rickie Lambert 27, Adam Lallana 11, Guilherme Do Prado 10, Billy Sharp 9
3rd; West Ham. For 81, Against 48; Carlton Cole 14, Kevin Nolan 12, Ricardo VazTe 10
Other top scorers; 18 Ross McCormack Leeds (14th) 16 Marlon King Brum (4th) Kevin Phillips Blackpool (5th) Matty Fryatt Hull (8th) Charlie Austin Burnley (13th)

2012/13 Season
1st; Cardiff City. For 75, Against 45; Heider Helgurson 8, Peter Whittingham 8, Aron Gunnarsson 8
2nd; Hull City. For 61, Against 52; Robert Koren 9, Sone Aluko 8, Jay Simpson 6
5th; Crystal Palace. For 73, Against 62; Glenn Murray 30, Wilfried Zaha 8, Kevin Phillips 6
Other top scorers; 29 Jordan Rhodes Blackburn (17th) 24 Charlie Austin Burnley (11th) 22 Chris Wood Leicester (6th) 22 Vydra, 20 Deeney both Watford (3rd)

2013/14 Season
1st; Leicester City. For 83, Against 43; David Nugent 20, Jamie Vardy 16, Lloyd Dyer and Danny Drinkwater 7
2nd; Burnley. For 72, Against 37; Danny Ings 21, Sam Vokes 20, Scott Arfield 8
4th; QPR. For 60, Against 44; Charlie Austin 17, Ravel Morrison 6, Junior Hoilett and Bobby Zamora 4
Other top scorers; 28 Ross McCormack Leeds (15th) 25 Jordan Rhodes Blackburn (8th) 24 Troy Deeney Watford (13th) 22 Chris Martin Derby (3rd) & Lewis Grabban Bournemouth (10th)

2014/15 Season
1st; Bournemouth. For 98, Against 45; Callum Wilson 20, Yann Kermorgant & Matt Richie 15, Brett Pitman 13
2nd; Watford. For 91, Against 50; Troy Deeney 21, Odion Ighalo 20, Matej Vydra 16
3rd; Norwich. For 88, Against 48; Cameron Jerome 20, Bradley Johnson 15, Lewis Grabban & Gary Hooper 12
Other top scorers; 27 Daryl Murphy Ipswich (6th) 21 Jordan Rhodes Blackburn (9th) 20 Rudy Gestede Blackburn (9th) 18 Chris Martin Derby (8th)

2015/16 Season
1st; Burnley. For 72, Against 35; Andre Gray 23, Sam Vokes 15, Scott Arfield 8
2nd; 'Boro. For 63, Against 31; David Nugent 8, Cristhian Stuani & Gaston Ramirez 7
4th; Hull City. For 69, Against 35; Abel Hernandez 20, Mo Diame 9, Sam Clucas 6
Other top scorers; 21 Ross McCormack Fulham (20th) 18 Jonathan Kodjiia Bristol City (18th) 17 Tomer Hemed Brighton (3rd) & Nahki Wells Huddersfield (19th)

2016/17 Season
1st; Newcastle. For 85, Against 40; Dwight Gayle 23, Matt Richie 12, Ayoze Perez 9
2nd; Brighton. For 74, Against 40; Glenn Murray 20, Anthony Knockaert 13, Sam Baldock & Tomer Hemed 11
5th; Huddersfield. For 56, Against 58; Elias Kachunga 12, Nahki Wells 10, Isiah Brown & Tommy Smith 4
Other top scorers; 27 Chris Wood Leeds (7th) 23 Tammy Abraham Bristol City (17th) 19 Jonathan Kodjiia Villa (13th) 18 Yann Kermorgant Reading (3rd)

Make of that what you wish with regards to 20 goal a season forwards...

 

[Alan]

I do think it's a bit odd that we seem to think that there are some strikers that have x goals in them regardless of the team around them or the tactics being used. It's oversimplifying things, IMO.

The goal tallies above are not just down to those forwards (though obviously they played a big part), it's down to the players assisting them and the way they functioned with each other.

 

[big mean bunny]

I think its a misnomer Alan, we seem to have a lot of preconceived ideas about football as a country. Like I said it was raw data and not a look at tactics or set up purely because I kept seeing that comment about 20+, like having a player achieve that alone would be all we need. Darlo's post backs up what I personally feel and what cyber mentioned, which is that defensive organisation is whats key, although appreciate your average Wolves fan that comments on Facebook and Twitter probably isnt going to get excited by that!