Supply Teacher & 2020/21 PTG Intertoto Cup winner
- Jan 15, 2010
- Reaction score
It isn't great to concede first but it's the result at the END of the match that matters, surely?
Surely statistics show that in the majority of premier league games the team who scores first is more likely to win? This is a little out of date but shows that the first goal is very important in the premier league.It isn't great to concede first but it's the result at the END of the match that matters, surely?
Last season that figure was 0.10 which is probably the difference having Raul would make, or maybe even some of Silva's shots going in.Really?
Worst expected goals per shot 0. 08. Rare as hens teeth showing we are not creating anything dangerous ie powderpuff.
We score great goals or nothing it seems .
We are below the prolific Sheffield United. ( ps they’re bottom and relegated)
Passes into the area we are also bottom. Again creating no danger so creating no chances. You can’t blame WJ if we aren’t giving him chances. ( below WBA who are second bottom)
Our pressure in the attacking third we are bottom so we sit too deep according to the stats and don’t press high enough.
Low on ball recovery. 2nd and third balls won by the opponents. Blocked passes very low if not bottom which is fine if we are a high possession side but we are not. This was our strength in previous seasons and it’s really dropped this season.
9 of 11 wins by 1 0
Scored first twice in 23 games.
Looks more like relegation form to me, not silly. We are fortunate playing how we have this year to be safe with 5 to go
Isn't 1 in 5 games worse than 1 in 2? So hes been over twice as shit this season unless you are including him providing a goal or SCA for the opposition...In defence of Adama Traore.
Adama has had a really poor season from a goals and assists perspective but those two stats don't tell the whole story.
What the stats do show is in regards to shot creating actions (pass, dead ball, dribble, shot, being fouled or a defensive action) which contribute to a team mate having a shot. So an assist to the assister kind of thing.
This is where Adama tops the charts, he has the most shot creating actions (SCA) when free kicks are removed. (Incidentally, this metric shows how ace Pedro Neto is). So whilst we don't see this output in terms of goals and assists directly attributable to Adama, what we do see is his influence in allowing wolves to get into a situation where a shot can occur.
Incidentally, his SCA this season is higher than it was last season. His goal contribution per game last season was 0.52, or, in every 1/2 games Adama did something which lead to a goal, however, this season it's 0.19, or 1/5 games.
In terms of progressive carries up the pitch, he comfortably leads that stat too (as you would expect!).
So, from this, I would surmise that Adama has a role in the team which is getting us to a position where we're able to have a shot on goal.
I don't really think I've noticed this too much when watching games (either this season or last season) so I find this quite an interesting perspective.
Depends whether you think he's responsible for his colleagues not scoring.Isn't 1 in 5 games worse than 1 in 2? So hes been over twice as shit this season unless you are including him providing a goal or SCA for the opposition...
We underperformed as a team xG for and against last season. As I have said, with slightly more luck we’d have been top six maybe fiveDepends whether you think he's responsible for his colleagues not scoring.
Adamas expected assists are 4.7, second highest at the club. In terms of actual assists compared to xA Adama is rock bottom on -2.7
The whole club are underperforming both against xG and xA, last season we over performed against both metrics.
That's the thing though, it seperates the player providing the assist from the quality of the shooter.I'm not sure xA is useful. If he's providing chances for Donk or Semedo for example then that player is more likely to miss.
If he's providing a dinked cross that too is unlikely to provide a good chance and I'm not sure the metric allows for that (it allows for crosses as a whole rather than type).
xA coupled with who the chance was for and type of cross/ pass would be a better metric to use but then your sample size would be tiny for comparison.
Tl;dr the xA or SCA stat is useless without context.
You're proving my point here Andy.That's the thing though, it seperates the player providing the assist from the quality of the shooter.
Otherwise you'd end up in a situation whereby players like Adama get criticism because they aren't providing assists to Raul (i.e. players who perform better against xG).
Obviously, there is nuance if Adama has the choice between assisting different players in the box and there aren't any stats to show that which is where observations come in.
I don't follow, for me, using xA is a "fairer" metric than using actual assists. The reason being it's not Adamas fault that Donk heads over the bar, it's also not to Adamas credit if Raul scores an impossibility unlikely chance.You're proving my point here Andy.
Providing assists is a useless metric unless it's coupled with who the assist is for.
It's also useless if the quality of the assist is crap delivery for the player.
I'm sure Adama will have been given a decent xA score for a chipped cross into Podence but there is no chance Pod scores as he is right now.
It renders the start pointless.
My eyes, like everyone else's, are biased. This isn't about closing your eyes and relying purely on the data. It's about looking at the data to see if what your eyes tell you is true, or if you've missed something, or is there something else interesting happening?Do you know what's the best metric? Your eyes.