Ukraine

[jd1981]

RAF jets scramble pretty much every month to intercept Russian planes, have done for decades.

Yep and that’s all they do is they intercept nothing more, you don’t end human life to prove you mean business.

 

[sycophantia]

Shouldn’t be underestimated just how quickly shooting down a Russian plane can escalate very quickly into an international crisis.
Once you’re down that path it’s very hard to put the brakes on.

Absolutely, it's a terrifying thought. However it feels like Putin is going further every few weeks to test NATOs resolve. How far do you allow him to go?

 

[Keef]

Where does it stop especially when you have a like for like retaliation?
Rational thinking needs to be applied whilst incurring air space is a violation it’s not killing anyone.
If you suggest NATO should be being proactive and shooting down Russian planes then you lose all ability to negotiate on your terms, for starters you destroy any little trust that may have existed.
NATO plane kills Russian pilots, you’re entering a completely different ball game to Russia invading Ukraine etc.

Putin doesn’t want negotiations, he wants either the old tsarist or soviet empire back, and he doesn’t care on the costs, what is it 1.5 million soldiers lost, 100 or so multi million pound jets, around a 1000 multi million pound tanks, how many ships, he wants Ukraine gone from history, lot of the northern coast of Estonia is Russian speaking, then from Sillemae to Narva is majority Russian and Narva is only Russian speaking, they’d welcome being back home under mother Russia.
He’ll carry on taking the piss, nato will carry on with the stern words, and next thing you know he’s protecting Russian infrastructure of the railway to Kaliningrad in the Sulwaki gap in Lithuania and nato will escalate to sterner words and strongly worded letters asking him nicely to stop or there’ll be repercussions, his bluff has to be called at some point, who knows when and what will do it.

 

[Keef]

RAF jets scramble pretty much every month to intercept Russian planes, have done for decades.

When I lived up in Lincoln we supplied cooks to the QRA (quick reaction alert) at Coningsby used to take them right to the building next to the hangers, they got scrambled a couple of times when I was there, it was epic, from the alarm to in the sky and gone in a couple of minutes.
Asked all the idiot questions to the staff like I was a 7yo, how fast, how high etc, was told Coningsby to London was around 6 minutes! They scramble and everything gets moved out the way and the jets have a 2 mile sterile space around them horizontally and vertically, and get the nod to go supersonic asap after takeoff

 

[jd1981]

Putin doesn’t want negotiations, he wants either the old tsarist or soviet empire back, and he doesn’t care on the costs, what is it 1.5 million soldiers lost, 100 or so multi million pound jets, around a 1000 multi million pound tanks, how many ships, he wants Ukraine gone from history, lot of the northern coast of Estonia is Russian speaking, then from Sillemae to Narva is majority Russian and Narva is only Russian speaking, they’d welcome being back home under mother Russia.
He’ll carry on taking the piss, nato will carry on with the stern words, and next thing you know he’s protecting Russian infrastructure of the railway to Kaliningrad in the Sulwaki gap in Lithuania and nato will escalate to sterner words and strongly worded letters asking him nicely to stop or there’ll be repercussions, his bluff has to be called at some point, who knows when and what will do it.

There’s absolutely no way on this planet Russia can financially afford or logistically support a war in Ukraine and the Baltic States against NATO simultaneously.
If he defeats Ukraine then yes you can start to be nervous but that war looks like a complete stalemate currently.
He knows full well any invasion of the Baltic states invokes article 5 for NATO.
You don’t stay in power for 20+ years for being stupid.
If an invasion of the Baltic states were close you’d see a major build up of troop movements on those borders.
He’s bolstered his forces there but nothing remotely big enough to suggest invasion.
Dealing with countries with nuclear weapons is one of very few times you should be reactive not proactive ie striking first policy.
Evidence suggests this is a continuation of a game Russia plays and has done for years.
NATO plays it pretty well by showing it’s there but no being bated into violent aggression.
Simply saying you don’t push humanity closer to experiencing a threads type situation due to something that’s barely cost any lives so far.
Yep it’s annoying from our view point but if you look at it from Russia view point they’d say it’s equally intimidating being surrounded by NATO forces especially in Eastern Europe where historically it’s been a huge weakness for them for centuries due to the geography in that region.

 

[Keef]

2 Hungarian Saab Gripens scrambled from Saulinai airbase in Lithuania to intercept Russian Su-30, Su-35 and three Mig-31 approaching from over the Baltic Sea.

Poland has changed its rules of engagement giving air commanders the authority to shoot down anything Russian in its airspace, without having to get defence minister involved, airliners still need his ok though, although they can be forced to land without his permission.

 

[Keef]

Large numbers of Russian “border guards” spotted on the Estonian border area of what is known as the Saatse boot, thats basically a bit of Russia that juts into Estonia, you can drive/cycle through it but no stopping or the Russians arrest you for illegal entry, Estonia sending troops to monitor what’s going on

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Those tiny little border disputes are always ludicrous. Just give them back their 2 miles of land FFS.

 

[Keef]

Yea, I’ve never understood why it wasn’t sorted out decades ago, it’s just forest with a couple of border watch towers