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2024 General Election Thread

Who did you Vote For

  • Labour

    Votes: 35 63.6%
  • Tory

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Lib Dem

    Votes: 7 12.7%
  • Green

    Votes: 12 21.8%
  • Farage Ltd

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Serious Independent

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • SNP

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • One of the Niron ones

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Count Binface

    Votes: 1 1.8%
  • Mr Baked Bean Face

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other Strange Party/Independent

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    55

Sniffer

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Rather than put General Election information in the Sunak or Starmer threads (or not know which when the TV debates are held) then we can have general thread where discussions can be had that can encompass other parties too.
 
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JL Partners poll for the Telegraph
 
In its defence, it's not so much odd as it is (arguably) over-enthusiastic. Pretty much every pollster is getting the same results, give or take, before accounting for don't knows, and then the differences are coming from how they're weighting them. Their pre-weighting result is 43-26, right in line with everyone else.

Traditionally those don't knows start to break one way or the other (historically more Tory) by the halfway point of a campaign, so if the polls do start to converge a bit in 2-3 weeks' time then we can say it was predictive and not necessarily an outlier.

I'm also usually sceptical of claims that pollsters are trying to rig elections through deceptive polling, but the "J" in JL Partners was Theresa May's private pollster when she was PM, and his business is selling polling services to Tories and US Republicans. They do have something of an interest in trying to make the race appear closer than it is.
 
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The pollsters have a problem with the "don't knows" because they "don't know" where the 2019 Conservative vote who are now "don't know", particularly in the North, is going to land. Some will go to Reform UK, some will go to Labour, some will go back to the Conservatives. There is no real data that reflects what happened in the northern wall seats - there have been a few low turnout local elections since 2019 and some by elections...but nothing that can really inform that problem.

Different pollsters will adopt different approaches so I guess we are left looking for polling trends over the next few weeks...but rather than looking at the headline numbers, it is probably best to look at the raw data and see when/if the "don't knows" start to commit.
 
The Tories only won loads of those old Red Wall seats in 2019 by tiny, tiny majorities. Very little chance they'll be clinging on to them given that the two promises (Brexit & levelling up) of that campaign have been a catastrophic failure and non-existent respectively, and Sunak doesn't have even 1% of the inexplicable personal appeal that Johnson briefly did.
 
The Tories only won loads of those old Red Wall seats in 2019 by tiny, tiny majorities. Very little chance they'll be clinging on to them given that the two promises (Brexit & levelling up) of that campaign have been a catastrophic failure and non-existent respectively, and Sunak doesn't have even 1% of the inexplicable personal appeal that Johnson briefly did.
I don’t disagree, but that wasn’t the point I was making.
 
Yeah, I get you.

It's just another way that national polling doesn't tell you the full story.
 
The BBC are giving Farage his 1345th Question Time appearance tomorrow night
Chris Mason doing a piece on how Nigel Farage became so important in UK politics. I just can't think Chris it's a real mystery.
 
Daily Mail getting fully stuck into their Election coverage and throwing their full support behind Rishi....oh no, apologies today that have gone another vital story we all need answers for - Lord Lucan

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