Live Match Discussion 2023/24

[Carrotdude]

Personally I think we had some positive variance go our way to get in the position we have so now is just reverting to the mean. Stats suggest we should be around 12th I think.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Personally I think we had some positive variance go our way to get in the position we have so now is just reverting to the mean. Stats suggest we should be around 12th I think.

Really? How about all those bizarre VAR decisions that cost us points?

 

[Carrotdude]

We’ve had things go for us as well and wins we haven’t really deserved. It’s not at Lage levels of overperforming our stats but it’s there

 

[YoungWolf]

We’ve had things go for us as well and wins we haven’t really deserved. It’s not at Lage levels of overperforming our stats but it’s there

Agreed.

 

[ROVERT47]

I accept the criticism aimed at the relevant people, Fosun, Shi, my feelings on this are we enjoyed the early Fosun hiatus along with the Nuno years, unfortunately it seems the status qou that we endured for years seems to be returning until we can find a Jim Ratcliffe or a Sheikh.
I may well lose my old man discount, then it’s up to me to say as my old man would say, ‘fuck this for a game of soldiers’ or bite the bullet and take it on the chin.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

We’ve had things go for us as well and wins we haven’t really deserved. It’s not at Lage levels of overperforming our stats but it’s there

Having the rub of the green in game is different to having points effectively taken off us for ridiculous VAR decisions though isn't it?

And what in particular are you thinking of?

 

[Derby Wolf]

Really? How about all those bizarre VAR decisions that cost us points?

Equally, we'd have lost points v Villa if we're going down the VAR is shit route.

We've almost certainly lost more than we've gained from VAR but aside from United away theres variables still at play after a VAR decision and we haven't been afraid to rescue defeat from the jaws of 'victory' against United or Coventry at home.

 

[Tony Towner]

Equally, we'd have lost points v Villa if we're going down the VAR is shit route.

We've almost certainly lost more than we've gained from VAR but aside from United away theres variables still at play after a VAR decision and we haven't been afraid to rescue defeat from the jaws of 'victory' against United or Coventry at home.

Sheff Utd was the last kick of the game more or less too

 

[ROVERT47]

Anyway, back to live match discussion, good.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Equally, we'd have lost points v Villa if we're going down the VAR is shit route.

We've almost certainly lost more than we've gained from VAR but aside from United away theres variables still at play after a VAR decision and we haven't been afraid to rescue defeat from the jaws of 'victory' against United or Coventry at home.

Exactly, we've lost more than we've gained. So this sudden revisionist narrative that we're actually in a false position is wrong.

 

[Templeton Peck]

Exactly, we've lost more than we've gained. So this sudden revisionist narrative that we're actually in a false position is wrong.

Agreed. I've gone through all our games and if you're being harsh you might say we have 2 points more than we 'deserve' based on performances.

 

[Tony Towner]

Agreed. I've gone through all our games and if you're being harsh you might say we have 2 points more than we 'deserve' based on performances.

I don't believe in XG as a metric at least not in individual games, but if you are playing that very binary game we are +12 points and 5 places

Who is top of the Premier League xG table for 2023/24?

Goals are great, but what's even better than actual goals? Expected goals. And, according to xG, Chelsea are the fourth best with Everton in fifth.

www.football365.com

 

[Carrotdude]

Off the top of my head, the Everton game at the start of the season was a proper smash and grab and the 4 home games against Sheffield United, Burnley, Forest and Fulham we got 10 points and didn’t play well at all in any of them, could easily have been 4 points or less from those

 

[Tony Towner]

We didn't play well against either Sheff U or Burnley, equally neither looked like scoring. I wouldn't say we didn't deserve to win either or were lucky. The flip is we should have beaten Utd away, should have put Sheff U away in the first half at their place

 

[YoungWolf]

Exactly, we've lost more than we've gained. So this sudden revisionist narrative that we're actually in a false position is wrong.

It isn’t suddenly revisionist nor is it wrong

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

It isn’t suddenly revisionist nor is it wrong

OK it's an opinion.

But it's definitely a very different narrative to what I've seen before.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Off the top of my head, the Everton game at the start of the season was a proper smash and grab and the 4 home games against Sheffield United, Burnley, Forest and Fulham we got 10 points and didn’t play well at all in any of them, could easily have been 4 points or less from those

Wouldn't call Everton a smash and grab, Sa made some good saves but so did Pickford and Fabio missed the target altogether with the clearest chance of the game. More a low quality (but still eventful) game that could have gone either way.

The raw xG numbers for Fulham at home will show that they 'should' have won by that measure but it's their own problem that they displayed terrible finishing in the first half, then we clearly outplayed and outfought them in the second half and on that basis I'm not sure they can complain too much. Even then a flurry of late chances when we were already 2-0 up with very little time left will skew the figures.

 

[Tony Towner]

Of all our games this season the one where the scoreline least matches the play was Brentford away. We were clinical, they weren't. On the balance of play a draw would have been fair, but it looks like a bit of a hammering

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

I've no sympathy with teams who routinely waste good chances, it just means you have shit forwards, ergo a key part of your team is bad and that's why you don't get results. You don't "deserve" any better in that situation.

 

[YoungWolf]

No but if you consistently concede more chances than create, you can’t expect to get away with it on a consistent basis.

We’ve improved in that aspect anyway since early December I think. Then had injuries which have derailed that. Being the 12/13th best team in the league with the situation we found ourselves in August is also still a good achievement from the coaching team.