20 goal a season striker theory

[Norman Deeley]

Good post BMB - love this sort of stats attack. My view (see my sig) is that if you score 85 goals you are in the top 2 - I looked at the average over the past 3 seasons only though. From a maths point of view, if your team scores 80-85 it would be very surprising if someone didn't score 20 goals. From a personal point of view, I like a proven goalscorer in a team and right now I worry that we might not score enough goals for automatic promotion

 

[Rui_CostCo]

There seems to be some implied correlation here between us needing a 20 goals a season striker and the ability to get promoted without one.

On the first point, we absolutely do. I'm happy to lower the bar, lets get a 15 goals a season striker. The return we have been seeing from our entire strike-force since Afobe left can't be much better than that combined, if it even is better?

Can you get promoted without one? Absolutely, if Dicko and Bonatini both started to chip in with low double figure tallies job's a good 'un, but I can't see that happening based on their current profligacy in front of goal.

The need for a striker, centre forward, No.9, whatever you want to call him is due to our lack of consistent chance taking from that position. As has been said, it is the only area we haven't significantly improved, which needs to be addressed if we want to get the maximum return from the team as a whole that's been built.

 

[PuntsWolf]

A lot of it is a load of bollocks this 20 goal a season nonsense. If you're playing in a team with a "big man" (Roman Bednar if you will) but you have a lot of attacking midfielders running off him then you'll score tons of goals but your main man will only get 10-15.

That figure is further influenced by whether your main striker takes pens and free kicks. Ross McCormack gets up to 10 goals a season from pens and free kicks.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

There seems to be some implied correlation here between us needing a 20 goals a season striker and the ability to get promoted without one.

On the first point, we absolutely do. I'm happy to lower the bar, lets get a 15 goals a season striker. The return we have been seeing from our entire strike-force since Afobe left can't be much better than that combined, if it even is better?

1990/91 - Bull 26, Mutch 8, Taylor 2, Paskin 1
1991/92 - Bull 20, Mutch 10
1992/93 - Bull 16, Mutch 9, Roberts 5, Bradbury 2
1993/94 - Bull 14, Kelly 11, Whittingham 8, Regis 2, Mills 1, Small 1
1994/95 - Bull 16, Kelly 15, Goodman 3, Stewart 2, Mills 1
1995/96 - Goodman 16, Bull 15, Crowe 1
1996/97 - Bull 23, Roberts 12, Goodman 6, Foley 1
1997/98 - Keane 11, Freedman 10, Goodman 8, Bull 7
1998/99 - Keane 11, Connolly 6, Flo 5, Bull 3, Foley 2, Whittingham 1
1999/00 - Akinbiyi 16, Branch 6, Flo 4, Keane 2
2000/01 - Proudlock 8, Ndah 6, Branch 4, Ketsbaia 3
2001/02 - Sturridge 21, Blake 11, Proudlock 3, Roussel 2, Miller 2, Ndah 1
2002/03 - Miller 19, Blake 12, Sturridge 10, Ndah 7, Proudlock 2, Cole 1
2003/04 - Camara 7, Cort 5, Iversen 4, Ganea 3, Miller 2, Blake 1
2004/05 - Miller 19, Cort 15, Clarke 7, Sturridge 1
2005/06 - Cort 11, Miller 10, Ganea 4, Aliadiere 2, Ndah 1, Clarke 1
2006/07 - Bothroyd 9, Clarke 5, Keogh 5, Johnson 3, Ward 3
2007/08 - Ebanks-Blake 12, Keogh 8, Elliott 4, Bothroyd 3, Eastwood 3, Kyle 1
2008/09 - Ebanks-Blake 25, Iwelumo 14, Vokes 6, Keogh 5
2009/10 - Doyle 9, Ebanks-Blake 2, Keogh 1, Maierhofer 1
2010/11 - Fletcher 10, Ebanks-Blake 7, Doyle 5
2011/12 - Fletcher 12, Doyle 4, Ebanks-Blake 1
2012/13 - Ebanks-Blake 14, Doyle 9, Sigurdarson 5, Dicko 1
2013/14 - Griffiths 12, Dicko 12, Doyle 3, Sigurdarson 2, McAlinden 1, Clarke 1
2014/15 - Dicko 14, Afobe 13, Clarke 2, Graham 1
2015/16 - Afobe 9, Mason 3, Zyro 3, Le Fondre 3
2016/17 - Dicko 3, Mason 3, Bodvarsson 3, Weimann 2
2017/18* - Bonatini 2, Dicko 1

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

God - that shows just how bad last season was.

Bonatini is on target for a 20 goal season (just about). Early days, obviously.

 

[malta mick]

ideally looking at a 75 goal season to get us in top 2, so others need to be pitching in with a dozen goals here and there even with a 20 goal striker

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Almost without exception, when we haven't got 20+ from strikers we've had a dire season. Even allowing for different formations, it highlights the need for their input. We will get goals from elsewhere, but the situation we faced when we signed the significant talent we did still exists. We will be creating a lot of chances and we need someone up top capable of converting a higher number of them than we already have.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Leo hasn't really missed many chances tbf. One glaring miss at Derby but not much else.

 

[nimrod]

Leo hasn't really missed many chances tbf. One glaring miss at Derby but not much else.

I think that's why the rule, if there is one, is a bit deceptive. If we're making lots of chances and missing sitters, fair enough. If we're not making the chances then it's not just about the strikers. I think a newly put together team will need a little time to work out its best route to goal. Sometimes, if it's a route one method, it's more obvious. When it's more about possession and movement it can take longer to bed in.

Still, I think we need to add a striker. I favour a pacy one up top.

 

[darlowolf64]

I think that's why the rule, if there is one, is a bit deceptive. If we're making lots of chances and missing sitters, fair enough. If we're not making the chances then it's not just about the strikers. I think a newly put together team will need a little time to work out its best route to goal. Sometimes, if it's a route one method, it's more obvious. When it's more about possession and movement it can take longer to bed in.

Still, I think we need to add a striker. I favour a pacy one up top.

Oh I agree we need a new, quick striker but he must fit the system and bring others into the game too

 

[slink]

Leo hasn't really missed many chances tbf. One glaring miss at Derby but not much else.

He missed one decent chance on Saturday that Bentley saved with his legs too. I like him, he links the play well and brings players into dangerous areas. I think what needs to improve most if he's playing are the runs made by the 2 inside forwards which i think we saw from Jota on Saturday and then Leo does need to get in to the box that bit quicker at times. After the international break he should be properly fit so we may see this then. We also need a RWB that can do what Douglas and Vinagre look like doing down the left.

 

[Johnny75]

He missed one decent chance on Saturday that Bentley saved with his legs too. I like him, he links the play well and brings players into dangerous areas. I think what needs to improve most if he's playing are the runs made by the 2 inside forwards which i think we saw from Jota on Saturday and then Leo does need to get in to the box that bit quicker at times. After the international break he should be properly fit so we may see this then. We also need a RWB that can do what Douglas and Vinagre look like doing down the left.

I'm with this. A RWB to replace Doherty is more important than a striker as we have Wilson to come in and we can recall Ennis as he's not getting a game at Shrewsbury and he's a very talented young lad.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

If Ennis is still there on Friday then he can't come back until New Year's Day.

I should hope either Sellars or Thelwell are having serious words with Shrewsbury right now.

 

[Johnny75]

If Ennis is still there on Friday then he can't come back until New Year's Day.

I should hope either Sellars or Thelwell are having serious words with Shrewsbury right now.

It would be appalling management not to recall him as there's no point loaning players out not to play as he can do that here.

And I dislike Shrewsbury anyway, tinpot football club.

 

[Quirkafleeg]

Ennis is injured again.

 

[Rui_CostCo]

Leo hasn't really missed many chances tbf. One glaring miss at Derby but not much else.

I don't see him as the answer. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough. Let's see where he is in another 5

 

[Keef]

Don't forget he's played in a tinpot Middle East league,championship is going to be a tougher league,and also as with Miranda,neves,boly,jota and Leo,it's also a strange new country to settle in as well,that's going to take a while as well,but at least cav and Costa are here to help with that