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UKIP and Similar Watch

The Saturday Boy said:
Not a hope in hell. Even at their best polling in the Euro elections last year they would have struggled to win that many seats - unlike the other parties they have no real areas of the country where their support is concentrated so they end up being second and third in many places but unable to win seats in FPTP elections. They may well keep their Tory defector seats and maybe Farage in Thanet but anything above that would be a shock and 10-15 is a fantasy even UKIP don't believe.
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Hats off you called this right. 120 second places for UK is the proverbial close but no cigar. We will have to watch what happens now with interest. Cameron has to deliver. 12.75% of the vote and only 1 seat. Sh*t happens I suppose
 
Do we now consider UKIP as a serious Party? Previously classed as a Protest vote when doing well but despite just 1 MP and they got a fair chunk of support. A fair amount of Labour voters went over to them by the looks of it.
 
Cyber-_-man said:
I have said it for a few years now. UKIP will get a number of MPs at this election. I predict 10 to 15. Think Labour have thrown this election away. 4 more years of Tory coalition here we come
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I hate to say I told you so....
 
To me, it seems like they gained the Lib Dem votes. The other lefty parties took Labour votes.
 
Jolemai said:
To me, it seems like they gained the Lib Dem votes. The other lefty parties took Labour votes.
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Yes and no, they took a lot of Lib Dem votes from 2010 who previously were Labour voters. Most commentators and Labour themselves assumed they would abandon the Lib Dems for going into coalition and return to Labour. Many didn't, they went to UKIP, my presumption being that many vote on personality of Leader, Clegg last time Farage this.

My Labour MP ran a very complacent campaign, his majority was slashed in 2010 due to a major swing to the Lib Dem's, there was very much a feeling that these votes would come back and return Derby North to a safe Labour seat. The predicted Lib Dem Haemorrhage happened (lost 20% share), but Labour increased by only 3.5% and Conservatives 5%, 6.5k (15% of the electorate) went to UKIP.

Very little has been discussed about the Labour supporting working class (I appreciate I am generalising here) voting for UKIP, but when you see vox pops on tv or hear people talking about immigration in the pub, no matter how misguided/ill informed or racist SOME of these views are, how many are really traditional Labour supporters rather than Tory? My experience and the evidence of this election would suggest a high percentage and although it was Conservative seats that UKIP could win it is the Labour Party they have truly damaged this election.
 
No doubt a lot of the white van man who used to vote labour voted for UKIP.
 
Penk Wolf said:
No doubt a lot of the white van man who used to vote labour voted for UKIP.
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I was in a card shop earlier this week and the staff were discussing the election and UKIP saying exactly this. Used to vote labour but we're voting for UKIP. And mainly down to immigration and the EU. These were women in their mid 30's/ early 40's. Not conclusive but suggests you may be correct.
 
People like to have someone to blame, UKIP pander to that and play on the victim card.

Reminds me of the old gag of shouting look over there while stealing your wallet.
 
BlueSkies said:
You're at it again
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Look. Toon has asked for his account to be deleted because he was pretty annoyed at digs at him. Please do not engage in some form of triumphalism. Politics is always a volatile subject on internet fora, and I don't want nasty arguments breaking out. Please keep things as civil as you can.
 
Visage said:
I hate to say I told you so....
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No you did. I really thought that 3 million plus votes would translate into about 10 seats nationally. More than that was a bonus. It was not to be. I really dont think they are going away though. SNP took a kicking on independence and 8 months later look what happened. It is a bit different with UKIP however today's council results show a resounding swing to UKIP . The logical deduction is that traditional tory and some labour voters will give UKIP a chance at local level but not seats in the big house. Thats fair enough and less risky. However even people who hate UKIP are complaining about how unfair the system of FPTP is given Scotlands careful and cunning campaign. Devolved govt, more powers for Scotland wales and NI parliaments, the Barnett formula and proportional representation will all be on the table now whereas they would not have been as high prior to this momentous election. Guys you will look back on this election and say that is when British politics really changed and the two party FPTP post system was shown up for the flawed effort it is. Its out dated , unfair and has left a majority govt that 64% didnt vote for and if you put the greens and UKIP together 2 MPs for 5 million votes. Ed Miliband did his best but never inspired anyone at anytime.I called it spot on for labour. Cameron just kept talking economy, job half done, give me a mandate and his master card Ed and Nicola and that put all of England off.
Finally however a big boo hiss to some people on this forum who have made it a little too personal. You know who you are. Politics are emotive and there will be disagreement but there is no need and nor will there ever be a need to be vitriolic or rude.
 
Cyber-_-man said:
Guys you will look back on this election and say that is when British politics really changed and the two party FPTP post system was shown up for the flawed effort it is. Its out dated , unfair and has left a majority govt that 64% didnt vote for and if you put the greens and UKIP together 2 MPs for 5 million votes.
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However flawed or unfair it may be, it won't be changing anytime soon. The people that have the power to change it are the government and there is no chance of them wanting to change a system that has seen them win a majority for one that would see them lose seats. Their main priority now is changing the boundaries which will improve their chance of winning more seats next time around.
 
Precisely. Forget electoral reform. We had a referendum. It was a shit referendum but that was the one chance. It is over.
 
The only chance of anything along those lines happening in the next decade or so is if we move towards greater federalism across the whole of UK, with devolved regional assemblies all over the country, and those assemblies in turn are elected by some form of PR. As a very distant second prize I would take that if offered. The Tories - and Boris in particular - seem actually fairly keen on some power being shifted away from Westminster, which is one of the rare occasions where I agree with them, though their vision of how this would actually work in practice undoubtedly differs from mine.

There are dozens of things I think should happen or that I would change about British politics, many to do with the underpinning structure of the electoral system and candidature in general - they won't happen because I don't run the country. I can get on my soapbox all I like, as can anyone, but it doesn't mean it'll happen.
 
Paddingtonwolf said:
Look. Toon has asked for his account to be deleted because he was pretty annoyed at digs at him. Please do not engage in some form of triumphalism. Politics is always a volatile subject on internet fora, and I don't want nasty arguments breaking out. Please keep things as civil as you can.
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Maybe someone generalising voting groups as "stupid" and becoming upset that this absurd notion has been rightly ridiculed shouldn't be posting on public forums at all then as he insinuates if he is asking for an account to be deleted. This poster playing the victim/martyr card doesn't make him any less culpable of triggering the "digs" with his posting style .. if I posted ignorant rubbish like this and broke into tears if anyone objected crying for admin to close my account with the Samaritans on speed dial I'd expect little empathy. If he was "pretty annoyed at digs" at him maybe suggest to him he changes his behaviour and stops generalising people in an ignorant manner which is in effect the same type of thinking that the very group he apparently despises do.. racists.
 
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