Keir Starmer at it again..

[Paddingtonwolf]

Similar to Ireland peaking in between rugby world cups hopefully

 

[Templeton Peck]

*doffs cap*

 

[Templeton Peck]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1929143295734653103

 

[Tredman]

Unexpected

https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk%2Fpost%2F3lqvluftzq22j

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

It is.

However, Reform being a power in Scotland is more of a surprise to me.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

What is needed is an opposition joined together to put a genuine alternative message that actually offers change for the better. That aims to rebuild the NHS, that taxes the wealthy appropriately, that invests in public services, that restores key infrastructure to the public and takes it away from wealth hoarding share dividend paying private companies. That isn't going to be Labour, but a coalition of some kind that is forceful in getting its message across.

Absolutely, sadly we were offered this opportunity fairly recently, and whilst they got more votes than Starmer, it wasn't enough. We've been suffering ever more, since.

 

[prawnking]

What is needed is an opposition joined together to put a genuine alternative message that actually offers change for the better. That aims to rebuild the NHS, that taxes the wealthy appropriately, that invests in public services, that restores key infrastructure to the public and takes it away from wealth hoarding share dividend paying private companies. That isn't going to be Labour, but a coalition of some kind that is forceful in getting its message across.

What power does a message that's not in government have?

If you both believe Labour are too right-wing now, and the strongest opposition to them are even more so, and the electorate in the past 12 months has responded strongly to both, how do you propose to win some of them over to the latest far left coalition?

The aims/messaging sound like the familiar beats I've heard for the past 40 years (not that I don't agree with most of them). How is that going to cut through in the current climate?

'Forceful in getting its message across' is usually what turns most people off left wing politics btw!

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

What power does a message that's not in government have?

If you both believe Labour are too right-wing now, and the strongest opposition to them are even more so, and the electorate in the past 12 months has responded strongly to both, how do you propose to win some of them over to the latest far left coalition?

The aims/messaging sound like the familiar beats I've heard for the past 40 years (not that I don't agree with most of them). How is that going to cut through in the current climate?

'Forceful in getting its message across' is usually what turns most people off left wing politics btw!

There just simply hasn't been a strong voice opposing austerity, immigration, or the 1% for the majority of my lifetime. A couple of years when Corbyn was LOTO but that was torn down quickly despite 11million voting for him and Starmer deciding to go in the direction he did.

Repeated Labour leaders just rolled over and accepted toxic, right wing narratives.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

11 million voted for him as he "won the argument" but he got annihilated in terms of seats. Now, that is without doubt a fault of the system but you have to have appeal that turns into constituency wins in areas where the Corbyn manifesto would have been an extremely challenging sell.

Starmer, with undoubted assistance from both the incompetence of Sunak and his mob and the backfiring caused by Reform vote cannibalisation, cleared that hurdle, but his policies are clearly some way distant from Corbyn's.

While FPTP exists and boundaries remain roughly how they are I cannot see a scenario where a platform more left than that being used by Starmer (which many will say is (being generous) not really left at all) can possibly succeed in an election.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

11 million voted for him as he "won the argument" but he got annihilated in terms of seats. Now, that is without doubt a fault of the system but you have to have appeal that turns into constituency wins in areas where the Corbyn manifesto would have been an extremely challenging sell.

Starmer, with undoubted assistance from both the incompetence of Sunak and his mob and the backfiring caused by Reform vote cannibalisation, cleared that hurdle, but his policies are clearly some way distant from Corbyn's.

While FPTP exists and boundaries remain roughly how they are I cannot see a scenario where a platform more left than that being used by Starmer (which many will say is (being generous) not really left at all) can possibly succeed in an election.

Yep agree with all of that, would also note that if Scotland hadn't been fucked so hard by Labour during their referendum, Corbyn would have won.

Historically up until the last 10 years, Scotland has been strong Labour, Corbyn was a victim of circumstance there, where as Starmer very much profited from it with Sunak, Reform etc.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Not to mention and epic collapse of the SNP from a high water mark that was previously unthinkable during Corbyn's attempt to get elected

 

[prawnking]

There just simply hasn't been a strong voice opposing austerity, immigration, or the 1% for the majority of my lifetime. A couple of years when Corbyn was LOTO but that was torn down quickly despite 11million voting for him and Starmer deciding to go in the direction he did.

Repeated Labour leaders just rolled over and accepted toxic, right wing narratives.

That's fine, but you didn't really engage with any of my points or questions relating to how to get what you want, you just repeated that there was nothing out there doing what you want, and perhaps never had been?

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

That's fine, but you didn't really engage with any of my points or questions relating to how to get what you want, you just repeated that there was nothing out there doing what you want, and perhaps never had been?

Well it's a sustained period of opposition against these "things" that I've mentioned.

I think the ship has sailed sadly and until there is a strong sea change against Reform or the like - (which will probably occur when they get elected and fuck everything up even more) then there is little chance.

The narrative against "woke" or "political correctness gone mad" etc is so strong now it needs to break itself before it can be attacked successfully now.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

The 2017 election was a knife edge. The Tories needed only a couple of 100 votes in the right constituencies to have won a working majority, the Labour Party only needed about 2000 in the right constituencies to have been in a position to form a coalition government. Neither leader of the two parties were popular or particularly effective but there were Labour politicians around in 2017 who could have won with the 2017 manifesto.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

In the right constituencies is the point. And also the major damnation of FPTP.

 

[visage]

The 2017 election was a knife edge. The Tories needed only a couple of 100 votes in the right constituencies to have won a working majority, the Labour Party only needed about 2000 in the right constituencies to have been in a position to form a coalition government. Neither leader of the two parties were popular or particularly effective but there were Labour politicians around in 2017 who could have won with the 2017 manifesto.

That claim has been repeatedly debunked.

The 2017 general election: not that close after all - UK in a changing Europe

Anthony B. Masters examines the claim that in the 2017 general election, the Labour Party were just 2,227 votes away from the chance of government.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Essentially what happened was that if 2227 votes had changed in just the right way, and no other votes changed, then Corbyn would have been in a position where he would have denied the Tories a majority.

Great, so then all he would have had to do is formed a coalition with the LDs, Greens and the DUP, the first of which would have made their support conditional on him stepping down and the latter of whom absolutely hated him because of his sympathetic attitude to Irish republicanism, so would rather Hell froze over than act as kingmaker for a Corbyn premiership.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

That claim has been repeatedly debunked.

The 2017 general election: not that close after all - UK in a changing Europe

Anthony B. Masters examines the claim that in the 2017 general election, the Labour Party were just 2,227 votes away from the chance of government.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Essentially what happened was that if 2227 votes had changed in just the right way, and no other votes changed, then Corbyn would have been in a position where he would have denied the Tories a majority.

Great, so then all he would have had to do is formed a coalition with the LDs, Greens and the DUP, the first of which would have made their support conditional on him stepping down and the latter of whom absolutely hated him because of his sympathetic attitude to Irish republicanism, so would rather Hell froze over than act as kingmaker for a Corbyn premiership.

This article doesn't debunk that 2227 votes were required, it goes into what might have happened if those 2227 votes had gone to Labour.

 

[The Saturday Boy]

That claim has been repeatedly debunked.

The 2017 general election: not that close after all - UK in a changing Europe

Anthony B. Masters examines the claim that in the 2017 general election, the Labour Party were just 2,227 votes away from the chance of government.

ukandeu.ac.uk

Essentially what happened was that if 2227 votes had changed in just the right way, and no other votes changed, then Corbyn would have been in a position where he would have denied the Tories a majority.

Great, so then all he would have had to do is formed a coalition with the LDs, Greens and the DUP, the first of which would have made their support conditional on him stepping down and the latter of whom absolutely hated him because of his sympathetic attitude to Irish republicanism, so would rather Hell froze over than act as kingmaker for a Corbyn premiership.

What has been debunked? You have just confirmed what I wrote. Labour could have been in a position to form a coalition, I didn’t comment on the likelihood of it happening. Yes, those 2000 odd votes relate to very specific constituencies but had they gone the other way there was a hypothetical situation where Labour could have been in that position.

Labour were also second in 21 seats where the majority was less than 1000. These are close results where a small additional swing could have shifted the results.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Well done Jez for only just losing to Theresa May.

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Well done Jez for only just losing to Theresa May.

Well done Kier for getting 25% less votes than Jez and beating the Tories after Boris, Liz and Rishi disasters and they had their vote cannabilised by Nigel....

What's your point?