Scottish Independence watch

[Johnny75]

I'd be surprised if it ended up being a NO vote tbh.

You think Scotland will get Independence?

 

[Penk Wolf]

In any divorce it doesn't need both parties to agree for it to happen.

I was referring more to see whether we can have a referendum to get rid of them instead. Surely, if they can vote, we can too?

 

[Lycan]

You think Scotland will get Independence?

I do. Salmond has done a good job of keeping facts out of the debate and it feels like there's been a real lack of fight from Better Together. Postal votes go out tomorrow and all I've seen walking around Glasgow, Edinburgh, Stirling and Dundee are YES campaigners on the streets, YES billboards at every corner and YES stickers on every car window.

If what they said last night is correct and they're expecting an 80% turnout then I can't see any way Better Together can win. People will vote with their heart over their head.

 

[Johnny75]

Then I pity you Lycan, you're in for a miserable economic time as the rest of the UK will not let Scotland use its pound as currency without severe financial restrictions. Companies will relocate to NI or Wales. You will not be allowed in the EU trading zone without completing the same period of time as the Eastern block countries and you will have to prop up your own welfare state.

I have extended family in Scotland and they can't see it happening, nor do they want it as they see the jobs disapearing from Scotland as the rest of the UK shut up shop.

I've read this before and I think it's a good argument for keeping the Union. http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/how-will-scotland-become-independent

Not only does it compare Scotland becoming it's own country to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Czech/ Slovak conflict resolution it also goes on to say the EU will be thankful if Scotland became part of it because of its vast wealth (eh?). The document then assumes that military bases, DVLA, tax and other shared resources will be split equally between the UK and Scotland.

In real terms, the rest of the UK cancels any right for any scots to work without a relevant Visa, takes it's military might (whatever that is), removes trident (which the yes campaign wants) and then charges an extraordinary amount of tax on any Scottish imports, including the oil they want to refine in the North East of England. In doing so crushing the Scottish economy in one fell swoop as without its biggest trading partner the Scottish economy fails, and certainly without it's currency it fails completely. Of course you could take the Euro and all of the infrastructure change that would need.

Does Alex Salmond really think the rest of the UK is going to stand idly by and let him dictate terms?

 

[Lycan]

I agree with all that Johnny but those points just aren't being made. There hasn't been enough done to eductate people about the real issues surrounding this debate and it's a fucking travesty.

 

[Johnny75]

I agree with all that Johnny but those points just aren't being made. There hasn't been enough done to eductate people about the real issues surrounding this debate and it's a $#@!ing travesty.

Oh dear then the Yes vote needs a hard look at itself. I did wonder why Darling was the leader of this campaign, he's got all the charisma of a ready salted crisp.

 

[Penk Wolf]

Oh dear then the Yes vote needs a hard look at itself. I did wonder why Darling was the leader of this campaign, he's got all the charisma of a ready salted crisp.

Maybe the Government don't really want them to stay in, but pretending they do in case the 'No' vote wins and they need their votes in the future?

 

[Kenny]

If Scotland goes, then I guess Labour lose a large chunk of its support as Tory Scottish MP's are rarer than a bowl of Salad in Scotland

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

An independent Scotland is a great help to the Conservative Party (in terms of getting re-elected). Labour would lose a shedload of Westminster MPs. The Conservatives wouldn't lose one.

 

[ROVERT47]

Indeed, being a Labour supporter it wiil be a hell of a long time before another Labour Government is elected without the Scottish Labour MP's.

Having said that, i don't expect the vote to go the way of the Nationalists.

 

[andyc225]

Indeed, being a Labour supporter it wiil be a hell of a long time before another Labour Government is elected without the Scottish Labour MP's.

Having said that, i don't expect the vote to go the way of the Nationalists.

I hereby throw my weight behind the "Yes" campaign. No more Labour governments? Yes please!

 

[GLASGOWOLF]

I have an appointment in a bank in Carlisle Friday on my way south to move my accounts.
If it's a yes vote Scotland is severely screwed, it starts of with a GDP of £145 billion, and a share of the UK debt of £150 Billion (8.8%) is the common guesstimate, as that's the rough size compared to UK.
Glasgow University did a fantastic study last week, based on a lot of what Herr Salmond says, it pointed out that no oil company is Scottish owned, and I think it was only 2 or 3 are British owned all of the British ones are based in London, and will continue to pay corporation tax to UK, Oil accounts for 16% of all UK corporation tax, the yessers keep saying 16% of tax but the figures show 16% of corporation tax.

The yessers keep spouting about Whisky, yet again there are no scottish whiskey companies, in fact the biggest is Diago (I think that's the spelling) its London based.

The yes campaign is based on anti English rhetoric, I am constantly campaigning for a no vote any one on my facebook page will know that. The number of anti English comments is quite scary for most English in Scotland at the minute, there has been a massive increase in racial attacks on the English over the last 18 months.

In reaction to Lycan, the reason there are yes stickers everywhere, is simply down to Scare, Better Together supporters are scared to show there support, have a look at Jim Murphy in Shawlands on his 100 streets in 100 days, in fact have a look at all of his speeches, it's scary stuff, I am lucky I live in a very pro union part of Scotland, I know very few yessers in our village, most of the threats and abuse I have received has been on-line, but there are English complaining about the treatment they are receiving on a daily basis in the shops etc.

Just so you English residents are aware what you are.....

"Your a bunch of lowlife, warmongering parasites living of Scotland without paying, or contributing anything to the union, in addition your enslaving scotland, and dont let scotland make any decision for themselves."

that's 75% of yessers opinion, fortunately they do not speak for Scotland.

Scotland will give a resounding No to the SNP, it may be a bit closer than I first thought, I thought 60/40%, but likely to be 55% / 45%.

My worry is the damage it's done to Scotland, it's split friends and family so much that I have friends who have deleted other friends from there facebook because of this, this will take a huge amount of repair, and I see Scotland almost turning into Norther Ireland over this issue, I am not saying I see deaths and bombs, but I see no hope of the next 10 years being peaceful.

If its a yes vote, Scotland will again tear it'self apart, but this time it will return England and Scotland back 300 years, there will be no relationship between the 2 countries, 55 million English, will not stand for 5 million Scots dictating the terms of there settlement, and that is exactly what the yessers believe will happen, all I get told is the sovereign will of Scotland will dictate everything and as Salmond said "What the hell as a Currency union, or Scotland share of the debt got to do with those English", be prepared for all hell to break lose.

1 good thing if it's a yes vote i'll get to see Wolves more, because my Scots wife, and myself will be living in England, we have already put feelers out.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Well - checking the 2010 electoral result, the Conservatives has one Scottish MP, and Labour something like 28 or 29 (hard to see all the Glasgow constituencies on the electoral map size I am using). On top of that the Liberals had what looks like twelve seats and the SNP around 6

So it looks like there are around 44-46 seats in Scotland. Take that off the 650 now and the new Parliament would be (in the maximum impact case scenario) 604 seats, meaning the Conservatives would have needed 303 for a majority. In 2010 they would have got 305 seats without Scotland so would have JUST got over the line. Labour would be down on 229 seats, and the Liberals would have had around 45 seats, with the remainder made up of Plaid Cymru, the Northern Irish Parties and the odd Independent or Green. Therefore no coalition.

However, it hardly means Labour could never get elected again. Just that it would be more difficult.

 

[GLASGOWOLF]

Paddy, what's hilarious is the scots that complain they did not get the government that they voted for

How's this because of the 36% turnout in Hollyrood, the diference in numbers of voters between the current Westminster giovernment and the SNP in holyrood is less than 40,000 votes

Salmond lost the first debate because the Chair of the debate was strict and every time salmond started shouting over the top of Darling he told him to shut up. Last nights the BBC was pis poor, it was awful, the yes campaign played the BBC brilliantly, they have complained about the BBC being Biased, they have had demonstrations outside, they were not biased, they were neutral, giving Salmond a hard time every time he was on.

We wanted Paxman to chair the debate, we got some useless work experience guy, we got a predominately yes audience. We have a lot of work to do over the next three weeks, to ensure we get a high as possible turnout, if its a turnout of un 70% Yes will win, if its 70% and over No will win.

 

[Lycan]

I envy you your pro-Union village Glasgo.

 

[GLASGOWOLF]

lycan we have to make sure we vote mate, any no voter needs to hit the polling stations.

dont let yessers detract you, i know plenty of people that tell yessers they are voting yes, through fear, they are voting no on the day
you may be surprised how many no voters there are, and even if your area votes .for yes, you no vote reduces there impact

 

[Sniffer]

I hereby throw my weight behind the "Yes" campaign. No more Labour governments? Yes please!

Labour, in recent times, have not had to rely on the Scots to win power.

Analysis shows that most general election results would have been the same, albeit with changed majorities. In recent times, Margaret Thatcher's Conservatives would have enjoyed a massive 174-seat majority in 1983, bigger even than the 144-seat majority they achieved. In 1992, Tory John Major would have had a 71-seat majority, as opposed to the 21-seat majority which occurred. And, without Scotland, Tony Blair's Labour majority would have been cut from 179 to 137 seats in 1997, from 167 to 127 seats in 2001, and from 66 to 43 seats in 2005.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27129813

Oops just seen Paddy had already provided some analysis.

 

[Lycan]

Don't worry about that Glasgo my whole family are voting NO. My sister up in Stornoway is sending her postal off tomorrow.

 

[darlowolf64]

My sister is married to a Scot from Edinburgh (Hibs fan) and he is firmly in the NO camp. He can't stand Salmond and doesn't understand how so many people are buying into his one dimentional "Scotland the brave" rhetoric. He believes that the No will win and is really praying it does for the future of Scotland

 

[Lycan]

http://www.blearyboy.com/how-better-together-have-let-down-scotland-democracy-basically-everything/

This article basically sums up my feelings towards Better Together (apart from the bit at the end, I'm still voting NO). The whole thing has been a shambles from start to finish.