Tetchy Rish! at it again

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Lee Anderson will just go back to Labour....

 

[leedswolf]

Some absolute creatures on here who I'd love to see drummed out.

UK general election: the seats the Tories will lose if the polls are right

Guardian analysis reveals the Conservative seats most at risk to Labour in the next election, based on current national polls

www.theguardian.com

Iain Duncan Smith
Gary Sambrook
Theresa Villiers
Shaun Bailey
Lee Anderson
Daniel Kawczynski
Jason McCartney
Jane Stevenson
Chris Philp
Brendan Clarke-Smith
Jacob Rees-Mogg

Lob in Andrea Jenkins into that lot

 

[Sniffer]

Badenoch appears to be in trouble as her insistence on making everything into a battle appears to be blowing up in her face with regards to the Canada Trade deal and the unedifying spat with the former head of the Post Office.

As for Sunak how can both of the statements in PMQs today be true...? (from the Gruniad live feed)

Sunak ignores the point, but says that all the money saved from the HS2 cancellation will stay in the north, and that says that Labour does not have a position on HS2 phase 2.

Rob Butler (Con) says money from the cancellation of phase 2 of HS2 is meant to be paying for better roads in Buckinghamshire. Will that happen?

Sunak confirms that that is the plan. He says two road plans Butler has been campaigning for should benefit.

 

[Tony Towner]

Buckinghamshire is north of Watford therefore in the North

 

[Wilf Wolf]

Buckinghamshire is north of Watford therefore in the North

Apparently so.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Aylesbury and Buckingham are. High Wycombe isn’t.

 

[Sniffer]

Liz Truss, at a right wing conference in the US with Farage alongside her, has claimed that the deep state scuppered her chances of success as PM. She even claimed that the Office for Budget Responsibility created by her party that has been in power for 14 years, is part of it all.

Yes Liz, the markets didn't want to know about how your tax cuts were going to be funded. Not owing as much as them over there is an economic plan we should have all rallied behind.

 

[pr0sl0]

Buckinghamshire is north of Watford therefore in the North

North of Watford the same way California is north of Canada.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

I may have mentioned that…

 

[Del Woppio]

Bit if a weird question but just popped into my head on the drive to work. I wasn't particularly engaged politically until 2015, so this will be the first time I've really 'seen' a change in government.

What do the opposition tend to *do* in the first year? Obviously after a few years it's pretty easy to just say "you've fucked this up, and so this is the impact, let's have an election", but it's pretty difficult to do that after only a couple of months, especially when the only answer will ever be "well you left us a mess and it won't be sorted overnight". I'm presuming it'll just be slating policies and u-turns, and making the most of any division/leaks/mild scandal, but it's going to be a really weird job for somebody, particularly as by the time it happens there'll only be a handful at most that have ever experienced being in opposition

 

[Elephant Pyjamas]

Liz Truss, at a right wing conference in the US with Farage alongside her, has claimed that the deep state scuppered her chances of success as PM. She even claimed that the Office for Budget Responsibility created by her party that has been in power for 14 years, is part of it all.

Yes Liz, the markets didn't want to know about how your tax cuts were going to be funded. Not owing as much as them over there is an economic plan we should have all rallied behind.

She's coming across more and more deranged.

These stories are great, I have a colleague who is a paid up Tory, and he voted for her to be PM in 22

I mock him almost daily, obviously.

 

[Tony Towner]

North of Watford the same way California is north of Canada.

It was a pithy comment, but as you chose to bring it up the comparisons aren't the same. ¾ of Bucks is North of Watford as opposed to under 1% of California. Well done you though

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

Seemed only fair to point it out as i grew up there

 

[darlowolf64]

Bit if a weird question but just popped into my head on the drive to work. I wasn't particularly engaged politically until 2015, so this will be the first time I've really 'seen' a change in government.

What do the opposition tend to *do* in the first year? Obviously after a few years it's pretty easy to just say "you've fucked this up, and so this is the impact, let's have an election", but it's pretty difficult to do that after only a couple of months, especially when the only answer will ever be "well you left us a mess and it won't be sorted overnight". I'm presuming it'll just be slating policies and u-turns, and making the most of any division/leaks/mild scandal, but it's going to be a really weird job for somebody, particularly as by the time it happens there'll only be a handful at most that have ever experienced being in opposition

There is generally a "first 100 days" where the new government will reverse the easiest/worst decisions that have been made.

There is a pledge to reverse the "anti union laws" that the tories have instigated , ban "zero hour contracts". A promise to reform statutory sick pay so it can be claimed on day one of sickness, not from day three.

They would revoke the new law requiring a minimum level of service in some public services, introduced by the Conservative government in an attempt to minimise disruption caused by industrial action in the health sector, the fire service, teachers and transport workers. Also revoked would be the Trade Union Act 2016, which introduced a 50% turnout requirement for ballots and a 40% support requirement for ballots run in certain key public services.

All of these pledges were made at the Trade Union Congress last year so who knows, but they were reaffirmed at the H&S conference yesterday by the MP for York.

There are so many things the cons have done that need reversing but it will take time! A huge Labour majority will make things easier to get through Parliament but if they don't get that the next 4 years could be an absolute clusterfuck

 

[pr0sl0]

It was a pithy comment, but as you chose to bring it up the comparisons aren't the same. ¾ of Bucks is North of Watford as opposed to under 1% of California. Well done you though

Wasn't meant as a dig!

 

[pr0sl0]

There is generally a "first 100 days" where the new government will reverse the easiest/worst decisions that have been made.

There is a pledge to reverse the "anti union laws" that the tories have instigated , ban "zero hour contracts". A promise to reform statutory sick pay so it can be claimed on day one of sickness, not from day three.

They would revoke the new law requiring a minimum level of service in some public services, introduced by the Conservative government in an attempt to minimise disruption caused by industrial action in the health sector, the fire service, teachers and transport workers. Also revoked would be the Trade Union Act 2016, which introduced a 50% turnout requirement for ballots and a 40% support requirement for ballots run in certain key public services.

All of these pledges were made at the Trade Union Congress last year so who knows, but they were reaffirmed at the H&S conference yesterday by the MP for York.

There are so many things the cons have done that need reversing but it will take time! A huge Labour majority will make things easier to get through Parliament but if they don't get that the next 4 years could be an absolute clusterfuck

Obviously pledges and manifestos aren't legally binding (although an important part of the UK's constitution is that the Lords will vote down legislation and send it back to the Commons if it's perceived to go too far beyond what the government promised in its election manifesto, a process which is largely arbitrary and subjective, and basically just a longstanding gentleman's agreement.) But definitely true that even the most radical or ambitious new governments can rarely do much in their first term because big problems tend to take years to fix. Blair didn't really start sorting out the NHS until his second term, for example, and Thatcher wasn't in a position to take on the unions until hers too.

There are some easy wins which will "feel" like an improvement relatively quickly - like homelessness. Relatively cheap problem to fix, purely an ideological choice that it's now got so bad. But for things like the NHS, it's going to take yeeeaaarrs to train new doctors and nurses even if the pay gets bumped back up to where it should be and the job isn't seen as a selfless sacrifice any more.

 

[Del Woppio]

Looks like the £28bn thing hasn't upset the apple cart too much

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760644651793436907

 

[lemonjelly]

Bit if a weird question but just popped into my head on the drive to work. I wasn't particularly engaged politically until 2015, so this will be the first time I've really 'seen' a change in government.

What do the opposition tend to *do* in the first year? Obviously after a few years it's pretty easy to just say "you've fucked this up, and so this is the impact, let's have an election", but it's pretty difficult to do that after only a couple of months, especially when the only answer will ever be "well you left us a mess and it won't be sorted overnight". I'm presuming it'll just be slating policies and u-turns, and making the most of any division/leaks/mild scandal, but it's going to be a really weird job for somebody, particularly as by the time it happens there'll only be a handful at most that have ever experienced being in opposition

I wonder if it'll be a bit odd, because there is likely, one way or another, for there to be quite the exodus of conservatives. Combination of lost seats, and people not standing again.

What remains to be seen, is how the tories respond to this. I can't help but feel (hope) that they are so factional right now, that they are in-fighting and jostling for seniority. There will no doubt be some uber right wingers, and some one nation tories, and a fair few unsure which way the wind is blowing, or undecided.

I think you're right to expect the opposition to be a bit odd, potentially even a bit naïve. I think a lot will depend on whether they as a party are able to galvanise (lolz) or splinter further.

 

[pr0sl0]

Impossible not to notice these two blue lines trending towards each other. For the last year a lot of people have been assuming the Reform vote was "soft", mostly people who are disillusioned with politics and unlikely to actually be motivated to turn out and vote (alongside some who are just Tory voters registering their displeasure at the government, but still likely to vote Tory if forced to choose).

But we're at least another six months out from the general election. There's a chance the two parties could have achieved parity by then.

 

[leedswolf]