Del Woppio
Virgin geek fuckwad
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Do Wolves fans (not necessarily here) need reminding how young 18 actually is, in footballing terms?
Obviously the £35m fee brings with it a certain expectation, as does the talk of him being a “generational talent”, and the Golden Boy shortlisting etc. But I do think that that has caused the expectation to be high, even for that which you’d naturally expect for one of Europe’s brightest young prospects.
I’ve had a little look at some of the best premier league strikers ever, where they were at 18, and where they were at 22/23 , after around 100 top flight games.
Alan Shearer – 260 goals in 441 games, all time leading Premier League scorer.
Made his debut at 17 ½, and scored a hattrick in his first start, in March 1988. In the next four full seasons at Southampton he scored 23 times in 118 1st division appearances, before moving to Blackburn at 22 years old, for a record transfer of £3.6m
Wayne Rooney – 208 goals in 491 games, record goalscorer for England and Manchester United
Burst onto the scene, scoring his first league goal against Arsenal, 5 days before his 17th birthday – and what a fucking goal it was. His two years at Everton yielded a return of 15 goals in 67 appearances, before moving at 18 years old in a £25m switch to United, making him the highest transfer for a player under 20 years old. He scored a debut hattrick vs Fenerbahce, and went on to be talismanic for United and England. In the 5 years since his Everton debut, he’d made a phenomenal 167 Premier League appearances, scoring 56 times. He and Ronaldo are the only footballers in the Premier League era to hit 50 league goals before their 23rd birthday
Andy Cole – 187 goals in 414 games
An Arsenal youth, he was signed by Bristol City at 21 years old. He scored 32 goals in 53 games in the second tier for Bristol, before joining divisional rivals Newcastle at 22 for a club record fee. He scored 12 in 12, to help them become promoted, and then scored a phenomenal 34 goals in 40 games – though that was the first and last time he’d exceed 20 league goals in a single campaign, he’s the 3rd highest Premier League goalscorer
Sergio Aguero – 180 goals in 267 PL games
Making his debut at Independiente just 5 weeks after his fifteenth birthday, and making another handful of appearances the next season. He then scored 23 in 48 league games over 2 seasons, before earning a 20mE move to Atletico at 18 years old. Used sparingly, scoring 6 times in 38 appearances in that first season. The sale of Fernando Torres in 2007 gave Kun a starting spot, and that saw a phenomenal 4 years, which led to a move to Man City at 23 years of age. He played 175 La Liga games, scoring 74 goals.
***I’ve left out Lampard as he was a midfielder – but the headline figures: started playing meaningful first team football at 19, in 1997 scoring 24 goals in 133 games for West Ham since then.***
Thierry Henry – 175 goals in 258 PL games
Debuting for Monaco in 1994 at 17, he spent four and a half years there, before a short lived move to Juventus, scoring 23 goals in his first 121 top flight appearances. In 1999, he reunited with Arsene Wenger, who took him to Arsenal, days before his 22nd birthday. He struggled in the early months, taking 8 games to register his first goal, and saying that he had to be “re-taught everything about the art of striking
Robbie Fowler – 163 goals in 379 games
Made his Liverpool debut 4 months before his 18th birthday, and widely regarded as one of the most natural finishers in PL history. He made his league debut at 18, and scored a phenomenal 83 league goals in 140 games over the next 4 years. Injuries let to a significant tailing off from that blistering start, scoring only 80 league goals in the remainder of his PL career
Jermain Defoe – 162 goals in 496 games
Scoring in ten successive games while on loan for Bournemouth at just 18 years old, big things were expected from the little fella. He scored 18 PL goals in 73 appearances for the Hammers, but was unable to keep them in the league. 4 months in the second tier saw a return of 11 goals and 3 sendings off, before moving to Spurs in January 2004, aged 22. The last 2 seasons of his WHAM career, and his first 2 for spurs saw him make 123 PL appearances and score 38 goals
Harry Kane 152 goals in 225 games
Kane was loaned out until he was 21, scoring 13 goals in 53 games in the Championship and League One. He made a handful of appearances at the backend of the 13-14 season, scoring 3 goals. His breakthrough season came after his 21st birthday, and he’s scored 149 league goals in 212 appearances since then.
Michael Owen 150 goals in 326 games
Pretty much the definition of a teenage goalscoring prodigy, Owen scored on his Liverpool debut at 17 ½, going on to score 117 goals 215 PL appearances in the 7 seasons that followed. That he only managed 45 goals and not even 150 league games in the decade that followed is genuinely tragic.
I’d love to go further (maybe somebody else wants to do the next ten! I’ve just used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_footballers_with_100_or_more_Premier_League_goals for the data), but I’ve got an incredibly exciting trip to Tesco now.
I guess the point and the gist was to help me figure out what is a reasonable expectation and output, for elite players, between 18-22. I mentioned in another thread, that Rashford has just hit 50 league goals, a few weeks after his 23rd birthday – only Rooney and CR7 have managed it before their 23rd birthday. I honestly think that if Fabio is still with us by his 23rd birthday, that he’ll be around 40-50 league goals, in around about 120 league appearances – which is a pretty elite level start to a career.
Loads of people have said he needs to bulk up – and that will happen. But look at pictures of those above when they were 18, and they’re all puny, with the exception of Rooney who looked like he was 32 when he was born.
If he only gets another 2-3 this year, and even hovers around 8 next year – the world may bill him as being a £35m flop. But I think we really do need to pay more attention the age than the transfer fee, when judging his performance and his output. He's really, really young, and we aren't going to see the best of him for another 5 years.
Obviously the £35m fee brings with it a certain expectation, as does the talk of him being a “generational talent”, and the Golden Boy shortlisting etc. But I do think that that has caused the expectation to be high, even for that which you’d naturally expect for one of Europe’s brightest young prospects.
I’ve had a little look at some of the best premier league strikers ever, where they were at 18, and where they were at 22/23 , after around 100 top flight games.
Alan Shearer – 260 goals in 441 games, all time leading Premier League scorer.
Made his debut at 17 ½, and scored a hattrick in his first start, in March 1988. In the next four full seasons at Southampton he scored 23 times in 118 1st division appearances, before moving to Blackburn at 22 years old, for a record transfer of £3.6m
Wayne Rooney – 208 goals in 491 games, record goalscorer for England and Manchester United
Burst onto the scene, scoring his first league goal against Arsenal, 5 days before his 17th birthday – and what a fucking goal it was. His two years at Everton yielded a return of 15 goals in 67 appearances, before moving at 18 years old in a £25m switch to United, making him the highest transfer for a player under 20 years old. He scored a debut hattrick vs Fenerbahce, and went on to be talismanic for United and England. In the 5 years since his Everton debut, he’d made a phenomenal 167 Premier League appearances, scoring 56 times. He and Ronaldo are the only footballers in the Premier League era to hit 50 league goals before their 23rd birthday
Andy Cole – 187 goals in 414 games
An Arsenal youth, he was signed by Bristol City at 21 years old. He scored 32 goals in 53 games in the second tier for Bristol, before joining divisional rivals Newcastle at 22 for a club record fee. He scored 12 in 12, to help them become promoted, and then scored a phenomenal 34 goals in 40 games – though that was the first and last time he’d exceed 20 league goals in a single campaign, he’s the 3rd highest Premier League goalscorer
Sergio Aguero – 180 goals in 267 PL games
Making his debut at Independiente just 5 weeks after his fifteenth birthday, and making another handful of appearances the next season. He then scored 23 in 48 league games over 2 seasons, before earning a 20mE move to Atletico at 18 years old. Used sparingly, scoring 6 times in 38 appearances in that first season. The sale of Fernando Torres in 2007 gave Kun a starting spot, and that saw a phenomenal 4 years, which led to a move to Man City at 23 years of age. He played 175 La Liga games, scoring 74 goals.
***I’ve left out Lampard as he was a midfielder – but the headline figures: started playing meaningful first team football at 19, in 1997 scoring 24 goals in 133 games for West Ham since then.***
Thierry Henry – 175 goals in 258 PL games
Debuting for Monaco in 1994 at 17, he spent four and a half years there, before a short lived move to Juventus, scoring 23 goals in his first 121 top flight appearances. In 1999, he reunited with Arsene Wenger, who took him to Arsenal, days before his 22nd birthday. He struggled in the early months, taking 8 games to register his first goal, and saying that he had to be “re-taught everything about the art of striking
Robbie Fowler – 163 goals in 379 games
Made his Liverpool debut 4 months before his 18th birthday, and widely regarded as one of the most natural finishers in PL history. He made his league debut at 18, and scored a phenomenal 83 league goals in 140 games over the next 4 years. Injuries let to a significant tailing off from that blistering start, scoring only 80 league goals in the remainder of his PL career
Jermain Defoe – 162 goals in 496 games
Scoring in ten successive games while on loan for Bournemouth at just 18 years old, big things were expected from the little fella. He scored 18 PL goals in 73 appearances for the Hammers, but was unable to keep them in the league. 4 months in the second tier saw a return of 11 goals and 3 sendings off, before moving to Spurs in January 2004, aged 22. The last 2 seasons of his WHAM career, and his first 2 for spurs saw him make 123 PL appearances and score 38 goals
Harry Kane 152 goals in 225 games
Kane was loaned out until he was 21, scoring 13 goals in 53 games in the Championship and League One. He made a handful of appearances at the backend of the 13-14 season, scoring 3 goals. His breakthrough season came after his 21st birthday, and he’s scored 149 league goals in 212 appearances since then.
Michael Owen 150 goals in 326 games
Pretty much the definition of a teenage goalscoring prodigy, Owen scored on his Liverpool debut at 17 ½, going on to score 117 goals 215 PL appearances in the 7 seasons that followed. That he only managed 45 goals and not even 150 league games in the decade that followed is genuinely tragic.
I’d love to go further (maybe somebody else wants to do the next ten! I’ve just used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_footballers_with_100_or_more_Premier_League_goals for the data), but I’ve got an incredibly exciting trip to Tesco now.
I guess the point and the gist was to help me figure out what is a reasonable expectation and output, for elite players, between 18-22. I mentioned in another thread, that Rashford has just hit 50 league goals, a few weeks after his 23rd birthday – only Rooney and CR7 have managed it before their 23rd birthday. I honestly think that if Fabio is still with us by his 23rd birthday, that he’ll be around 40-50 league goals, in around about 120 league appearances – which is a pretty elite level start to a career.
Loads of people have said he needs to bulk up – and that will happen. But look at pictures of those above when they were 18, and they’re all puny, with the exception of Rooney who looked like he was 32 when he was born.
If he only gets another 2-3 this year, and even hovers around 8 next year – the world may bill him as being a £35m flop. But I think we really do need to pay more attention the age than the transfer fee, when judging his performance and his output. He's really, really young, and we aren't going to see the best of him for another 5 years.
