Championship Scatter Graphs 2016/17

[Norman Deeley]

Always like this analysis: I'll hand over to more intelligent people than me to analyse... https://experimental361.com/2017/05/07/scatter-graphics-championship-201617/

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

As always very interesting.

And they are completely right about Reading - an outlier that makes no sense whatsoever in the data. They should be much lower in the table by the look of the data. I agree. I thought they should be much lower from when we played them. Because they were shit.

 

[Norman Deeley]

As always very interesting.

And they are completely right about Reading - an outlier that makes no sense whatsoever in the data. They should be much lower in the table by the look of the data. I agree. I thought they should be much lower from when we played them. Because they were $#@!.

What about Huddersfield? They scored two more than us, conceded the sane and yet they're in the play-offs, we're down in 15th. I'm going to be optimistic and say it won't take too much to turn us into a top 6 side

 

[Derby Wolf]

If anything could describe our defence over the last two seasons 'avoiding the issue' really is it! :icon_lol:

 

[Tony Towner]

I'd prefer to look at the 22 point gap between us and the playoffs as the true bench mark of how far away we are.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

None of our keepers save many shots. This has been the case since Hennessey got injured. How often do you watch Ikeme and think "wow, he had a great game today, pulled us out of trouble loads of times, definite man of the match" or "what a great save that was by Ikeme, didn't think he had a prayer of getting there". He doesn't save anything beyond the routine and chucks in a fair showering of abysmal goals that are purely down to him. And he's our best current option by a mile.

End result is that teams don't have to work very hard to score against us, you don't need to batter away constantly like say, we did at Brentford this season. You only need a handful of presentable opportunities, one of them will go in.

 

[Langers]

Indeed - you look at Matt Murray's final season here when we got into the play offs and think 'how many points did that guy save us?'

If we didn't have him in the side that season, we'd have been way out of it.

 

[Derby Wolf]

None of our keepers save many shots. This has been the case since Hennessey got injured. How often do you watch Ikeme and think "wow, he had a great game today, pulled us out of trouble loads of times, definite man of the match" or "what a great save that was by Ikeme, didn't think he had a prayer of getting there". He doesn't save anything beyond the routine and chucks in a fair showering of abysmal goals that are purely down to him. And he's our best current option by a mile.

End result is that teams don't have to work very hard to score against us, you don't need to batter away constantly like say, we did at Brentford this season. You only need a handful of presentable opportunities, one of them will go in.

He's another like Edwards, he'll have a game or two where he looks ok and makes a great save or two and then that save lives in the mind for the next couple of months contrary to all available evidence. Stoke this season or Brighton away last season for example.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Matt Murray was, along with Mick, the determining factor in 06/07 without a doubt. Simply incredible.

He's probably a bar we can never hope to reach again until we become a well established PL team (unless we get lucky out of the Academy) but I'd definitely settle for a Hahnemann-style keeper while we're in this league (ideally a bit younger than Marcus was when we got him). Maybe Ruddy Sr can be that man, I'm not convinced though.

When Lambert talks about moving on from the culture of mediocrity it's the likes of Ikeme, Batth, Edwards etc* that he needs to be focusing on. Players who've been automatic choices for far, far too long without really excelling at this level. Ikeme's had four seasons as first choice at this level, two of them (2012/13 and last season) have been utter shit, one has been probably a 5/10 effort (this year) and one half decent one (2014/15, although we didn't really lose much when he was injured - again - and we played Kuszczak). Keep them in the squad, they can sit there as back up and play if we need them to. No way are they proper options for anyone with designs on the top six.


*I'm not giving Doherty the compliment of being "mediocre", the shitehawk.

 

[Dinowolf]

Wolves must be close to being in the worst position ever for goalkeepers, and we've been in the fourth division.

The effect on the team of having a dodgy goalie is corrosive, and at worst is destructive.

 

[Tredman]

How often do you watch Ikeme and think "wow, he had a great game today, pulled us out of trouble loads of times, definite man of the match" or "what a great save that was by Ikeme, didn't think he had a prayer of getting there".

Might be quite rare, but I definitely thought that against Stoke in the FA Cup - as did quite a few match reports.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Yeah, I'm not saying it never happens. But it's probably at best twice a season. Which isn't enough.

 

[Tredman]

Tbf it's very very rare, Costa apart, that I look at *any* of our players and think great game, certainly not more than twice a season anyway.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

If you were to stack Ikeme up against every regular keeper we've had in the last 30 years, you'd have to rank him towards the bottom.

Kendall
Stowell
Jones (first spell)
Oakes
Murray
Jones (second spell)
Hennessey

He's better than Jones was second time around. I can't really make much of a case for him being better than any of the others. He's better than Lonergan, or Lange, or Beasant, or Segers, or McCarey, but they're all back ups or short term fixes. I don't think he's better than De Vries, Kuszczak or Martinez who've been here while he's been #1.

If we decided to sell him this summer do you think any top half team in this division would look at him and see him as an upgrade on what they've already got? I would say no.

 

[Paddingtonwolf]

We actually have been pretty blessed with keepers since Kendall. For a team to have had keepers like Stowell, Murray and Hennessey when we have hardly graced the top flight in that time was lucky indeed.

 

[Tredman]

Yes agreed (apart from Kendall, I was never a big fan) I just think we have other positions which are more important. I'd be happy with Ruddy on a free though.

 

[Deutsch Wolf]

Kendall had a similar weakness from range, didn't make as many absolute howlers though. Bigger character than Carl too.

We do need a keeper regardless, even if you were minded to think he's alright (I don't think that, but that's by the by). We all know Ikeme gets injured/goes through terrible runs very frequently (I've actually never known a keeper pick up so many small injuries, he always has at least one absence of a month or so a season). So you're going to need proper back up...and we don't have it unless Ruddy Jr really is close to being ready and is as good as some think (I've yet to see him play so I don't know). You can't be in a situation where you're gunning for promotion but there's every chance you'll have to play Lonergan or Burgoyne for anything between six and twelve games a season, because neither are even close to being suitable. And if you're going to buy a keeper...you aren't just going to buy one who's a bit inferior to Carl Ikeme. You'll buy a proper one and demote him.

 

[Kenny]

I would be very happy with Ruddy...although we would probably confuse Tim II if we put t'other Ruddy on the bench

 

[Alan]

Interesting read regarding the outright bizarrity of Reading.

http://cottagersconfidential.sbnati...eading-fulham-championship-playoff-semi-final

Essentially, if Reading score the first goal, you're fucked.