I thought I'd withhold judgement until watching Newcastle tonight, suffice to say I don't think their current league position is misleading in any way.
I think it's three from the current bottom five (Hull, Sunderland, QPR, Newcastle, Burnley) plus West Brom. I had West Ham down to struggle before the season started but Sakho and Valencia look like good additions so goals should be more plentiful. If Fat Sam finally wakes up and realises they look miles better without his mate Fat Kev Nolan stinking the place out they should be fine.
Sunderland play dull football and have the worst performing striking department in Europe. Hull only just about managed a point a game last season, have started poorly this year and this is around the time that Steve Bruce's teams start collapsing. West Brom have had a good week but that doesn't change them having a manager who will surely prove to be out of his depth, you really couldn't draw any conclusions from yesterday as Burnley were as poor as Derby's 07/08 vintage.
The current bottom three will have to improve significantly and I'm not so sure they have it in their locker. Newcastle have a lot of underperforming players, little goal threat and a lame duck manager. QPR have a manager who doesn't give a toss and sends out entire midfields who can't or won't run - with Hoddle working his unmagic behind the scenes too. Burnley look absolutely woeful. As noted on the Live Match thread earlier the signings they have made would not trouble Wolves' first XI let alone anyone in the Premier League, shocking business and while they shouldn't threaten Derby's 11 point record, they could very easily end up with the least goals scored ever in a PL season.
Derby also currently hold this with 20 goals in 2007/8, as it stands I'm not sure I back Burnley to score 19 or more in their remaining 32 games to add to the solitary goal they notched on the opening weekend. They create virtually nothing, their central midfield is a creativity free zone and in the absence of Ings and Vokes, they have three appalling strikers in Jutkiewicz, Sordell and Barnes at the sharp end. Between them, those three scored 23 in 116 Championship fixtures last season. For balance, in 2008/9, Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Andy Keogh, Chris Iwelumo and Sam Vokes scored 50 goals between them in 160 appearances and went on to score a grand total of 3 between them the following year in the Premier League.
