Fans expectations and our future strategy

[Stan Hullis]

I was writing this as part of my post in the transfer window thread but as I was writing I thought it probably deserved a thread of its own, as I'm interested to see what people think about a) the transfer business and b) the general direction of travel.

To me it seems obvious that our overarching strategy is to gamble on potential, rather than bringing in 'proven' players. We will then supplement this with signings like Semedo, Marcal and even Moutinho going back a couple of years but generally we are going to look at players who have a higher ceiling to where we are currently operating to either get us to that level or ultimately (in the case of Jota) sell onto teams at that level and make a good level of profit.

I think that is going to leave a large section of our fan base disappointed and not everyone will buy into that strategy. I think a lot of fans will feel we are missing an opportunity to 'push on' from two 7th place finishes to really try and break into the top 6 and ultimately the top 4 - feels like a lot of fans would have preferred us to have had Everton's window rather than ours.

For me, this doesn't sit with the long term strategy/aim of the club or the coach though, Nuno doesn't sign a new 3 year deal if he doesn't agree with the direction of travel.

Personally I'm quite happy to sit back and watch the side/players develop over the space of 12/18 months, even if it is at the expense of short term results because I think the longer term strategy of buying these types of players will ultimately pay off and get us to a higher level than we operate currently, without having to essentially try to buy our way into that with expensive signings that are a bit more experienced and older than our current crop.

I guess I trust the strategy, I trust Nuno and ultimately Fosun to deliver on the long term game plan - now not everyone has to agree with that (crazy right) and I can see why some fans might be disappointed but I think that was always going to be the case from this window's business, because we were never going to have an Everton style transfer strategy.

Are you disappointed or are you happy to sit back and watch the team develop of the medium/long term? Or ultimately somewhere in between?

 

[BGreenWolf]

I'm perfectly happy with what we're doing, to be honest.

We're gambling, of course, but we're basically following the Borussia Dortmund playbook, and if we develop into a team a fraction that exciting, I'll be absolutely delighted.

We shouldn't be churlish, and should recognise that the likes of Everton and Villa have had excellent transfer windows, but I don't fundamentally mind that we're following a different strategy to them.

 

[darlowolf64]

I think that, perhaps, the strategy is a little “buy to make a profit” but also “buy to build a team for years to come”.
We have signed some highly rated young players and so the hope will be, I guess, that they develop quickly and become first team players who live up to that potential. Yes it will enable us to make a profit when we sell but also the hope will be that they take us to the next level and allow us to continue with this strategy.

I think there is some risk but if the plan works it could see us push for the top 6 and even top 4 within the next few seasons and establish ourselves there

 

[Paul]

"Personally I'm quite happy to sit back and watch the side/players develop over the space of 12/18 months, even if it is at the expense of short term results because I think the longer term strategy of buying these types of players will ultimately pay off and get us to a higher level than we operate currently"

Perfectly put Sir.

 

[PuntsWolf]

I’m fine with the strategy, the team is already good enough to Be in the top 8 conversation with no Europe.

What I’m not happy with is if we finish 12th, level with Brighton, Newcastle Saints et al. and people sugar coat it as “transition” when we still have one of the leagues best strikers, GKs and CMs plus plenty of talent surrounding that.

 

[Deano]

I think the strategy is ok as we now have a very good team and to get players to come in and improve that first 11 is no easy task, you'd need close to world class players in a lot of cases and when you are shopping in that end of the market the competition is usually teams that play in Europe, and in a lot of cases the Champions League so it kind of makes sense that we go for younger players with a high ceiling.

The part about being happy even if it comes at the cost of short term results all depends on what extent. If we lost a few more games but you could see a clear plan of what we are trying to achieve and the 4 younger signings playing an increased amount and improving you might get away with it for a short period of time but in general fans/owners and pretty much all stakeholders wont accept poor results and performances in the present, football just doesn't work that way. There needs to be a balance where at least a couple of these younger signings hit the ground running. Hopefully once Nuno has had a bit more time with them on the training pitch and a few players fitness levels improve we will see an upturn in performance to what we have seen in the games so far.

 

[YoungWolf]

I’m fine with the strategy, the team is already good enough to Be in the top 8 conversation with no Europe.

What I’m not happy with is if we finish 12th, level with Brighton, Newcastle Saints et al. and people sugar coat it as “transition” when we still have one of the leagues best strikers, GKs and CMs plus plenty of talent surrounding that.

12th would be completely unacceptable IMO. We've finished 7th on merit in the past two seasons, and possibly could/should have done even better. I think 5th-9th might be quite tight this year but I agree with your point entirely.

 

[Langers]

I agree with all of that, Stanuel.

Seeing the club grow and improve since Fosun took over has been fantastic - it's not realistic to expect wall-to-wall success without a few potholes along the way. We may well see the occasional West Ham/Huddersfield style results as the team evolves, but as long as we react to those kind of performances and learn from them, I don't believe it's a massive issue.

The one issue I have is the lack of patience with fans - and this is absolutely not exclusive to Wolves, it's endemic throughout football. Fans expect clubs to splash the cash, and results to be instant. The way we are run suggests the club is in good, responsible hands and I am much more comfortable with this than a reckless, short term mindset.

There is absolutely no harm whatsoever with the 'look how far we have come' mindset. I don't mean to excuse poor performances (I'll hold my hands up for saying this on TWF, particularly last season!), but to look at the bigger picture. I spoke to a mate via text a few weeks ago and we agreed that if you still need to constantly find fault with Wolves at the moment and are unhappy with where we are, how we are run etc, then football probably isn't a wise choice of hobby because the good times vastly outweigh the bad and have done since Nuno arrived.

Progress is good, this club is in great shape and I'm really enjoying it - we WILL have some drawbacks along the way (including departures a la Jota), but I think we should all be excited about where we will be and how our first team squad will look and play over the coming months and years.

 

[Stan Hullis]

I do want to caveat the above by saying I'm not just going to blindly sit back with my head in the sand and not criticise performances or the club where it's necessary, for what it's worth.

 

[Paul]

I think one of the issues is as we have spent big money a lot of people are expecting us to become the 1970's Dutch team over night, a previous incarnation at least had a Championship season to gel and to work on the same wavelength, you can tell by some of the comments regarding age that people need instant gratification for the financial outlay, just give them time.

ps. I wager that within a year (or so) Vitinha becomes an absolute legend

 

[Sniffer]

The project is exciting but I have a few doubts in my mind.

My concerns are that we need to be challenging around the top six to convince the likes of Neves, Jimenez and Patricio to stay around rather than chase Champions League football elsewhere. I'm convinced that if they were to go we would not be able to replace them like for like on a quality basis with the money that we receive. Moutinho will be back to his best again before long but his career trajectory will be on a downward curve and the likelihood is that the likes of Saiss and Boly will be following that path too.

If 2/3 of the new signings aren't successful then we will be losing money on fees already paid and 3/4 of our top players values will be declining. It will be difficult to keep competing where we have been if players start to leave and big money signings don't work out. That being said I suppose that you could say the same for most clubs in the top flight.

 

[BGreenWolf]

Bloody hell, Boly and Saiss are 29 and 30 respectively. They're hardly bound for the crypt just yet!

 

[Tony Towner]

Nobody, but nobody at the end of last season on here or elsewhere was talking about consolidation or taking a step back to take 2 forwards, so I think there's a fair amount of revisionist thinking generally around that.

I can see the strategy, but I think it's risky. Whilst other players are developing your best centre half and centre forward are hitting 30. Rightly or wrongly I think they'll struggle to take all the fans with them on that journey if the result is a lower half of the table finish this year. Ultimately though that'll just be online noise given nobody will be in the ground.

Time will tell, but I'd have rather spent £30m on a 24 year old centre half or attacking midfielder for now and a Raul back up at £15m than Hoever and Silva, but it'll be at least 18 months before you can fairly assess that statement.

 

[Premier Quality]

I see it as improvement cycles. We had to get to get promoted from the championship and because of our recruitment we bought quality above the level we were playing at (spending a LOT of money) and we came up.

Season two was ensuring we established ourselves in the prem, and we spent a lot again bringing in real quality for the level.

Season 3, we had to pay for some of the loans from the previous year, and sorted out our issues in attack where we had no depth or ability to change by buying Neto and podence, but our lack of quality outside of those 13/14 players killed us at the end of the season with everyone being knackered.

Season 4 has been about fixing that lack of options, and giving Nuno the chance to evolve our style so we can be more successful in the future.

And we’ve done all of that whilst being really careful in the money we pay out (third lowest wages to income ratio at 40%), which means we can keep growing in the upcoming seasons - it’s a really sensible and impressive evolution.

I think a lot of people would have liked a bit more of an Everton style window - but Everton have now spent £200m net over the last 3 seasons and have a squad of about 28 first team players - I have no idea how they are going to avoid sanctions.

We are growing and improving in a sensible and sustainable way - I’m really enjoying the ride.

 

[Sniffer]

Bloody hell, Boly and Saiss are 29 and 30 respectively. They're hardly bound for the crypt just yet!

I agree and I'm sure they've both got a couple of decent years ahead of them! I was trying (probably badly) to state that their values will also be declining and it won't be too long before it can be expected that their careers may start to wane.

 

[carl0s]

You've got to ask the question, have we overachieved the last 2 seasons finishing 7th? Which has then put us in a sticky situation with the project, the new young signings may take a year or 2 to fully achieve their potential and the fans expectation will be to either hit top7 or push on and go further.

I'm glad I'm not Nuno and in this predicament. I just hope it pays off and we truly don't need the year for the new signings to hit their potential. I think with Covid and the lack of a proper pre-season, anything is possible this year, proven by the latest results, Liverpool, City, et al.

It's worth looking at Southampton too, they finished 8th, 7th, 6th, 8th and now they're no where near. I'm not saying that will happen to us, because we're buying for the future etc, but selling your stars each season is not a good move

 

[BGreenWolf]

We haven't sold our stars, though. We've kept our two most fancied players, are looking to hand them both new long-term contracts, and have only sold players who we could replace or who don't fit our system as well as they used to. We're hardly flogging the family silver.

If we were a selling club, we'd have been sitting on £100m worth of incomings from Jimenez and Traore, both of whom are at the peak of their value this summer.

 

[prawnking]

Nobody, but nobody at the end of last season on here or elsewhere was talking about consolidation or taking a step back to take 2 forwards, so I think there's a fair amount of revisionist thinking generally around that.

I can see the strategy, but I think it's risky. Whilst other players are developing your best centre half and centre forward are hitting 30. Rightly or wrongly I think they'll struggle to take all the fans with them on that journey if the result is a lower half of the table finish this year. Ultimately though that'll just be online noise given nobody will be in the ground.

Time will tell, but I'd have rather spent £30m on a 24 year old centre half or attacking midfielder for now and a Raul back up at £15m than Hoever and Silva, but it'll be at least 18 months before you can fairly assess that statement.

Some excellent points here.

Nuno and Fosun probably won't do a lot of the things that I would do, or expect a team in our position and with our ambition to do (like signing Silva), but I'm no expert, so have to trust them. It's clear they have a plan, yes it isn't the same as Everton's, but we need to see how it pans out. I think the top 9 will be very competitive, and there may be some surprises given how this season has begun.

I think this is actually a tipping point, and could go either way for us. With the new signings, experienced outgoings and talk of evolution and tweaking our style, there are a lot of forces at play. Could be we have re-adjusted and are on the right track with the right plan (Nuno and Fosun have certainly achieved a lot so far), but the PL is full of teams with plans (most of which fail), and what we're trying to do hasn't really been done this way before, so the odds are definitely against us.

 

[prawnking]

We've kept our two most fancied players

One of them isn't fancied much on here!

 

[Johnny75]

I see it as improvement cycles. We had to get to get promoted from the championship and because of our recruitment we bought quality above the level we were playing at (spending a LOT of money) and we came up.

Season two was ensuring we established ourselves in the prem, and we spent a lot again bringing in real quality for the level.

Season 3, we had to pay for some of the loans from the previous year, and sorted out our issues in attack where we had no depth or ability to change by buying Neto and podence, but our lack of quality outside of those 13/14 players killed us at the end of the season with everyone being knackered.

Season 4 has been about fixing that lack of options, and giving Nuno the chance to evolve our style so we can be more successful in the future.

And we’ve done all of that whilst being really careful in the money we pay out (third lowest wages to income ratio at 40%), which means we can keep growing in the upcoming seasons - it’s a really sensible and impressive evolution.

I think a lot of people would have liked a bit more of an Everton style window - but Everton have now spent £200m net over the last 3 seasons and have a squad of about 28 first team players - I have no idea how they are going to avoid sanctions.

We are growing and improving in a sensible and sustainable way - I’m really enjoying the ride.

I think this is a fair assessment.

I thought we were trying a similar strategy to Dortmund but I'm not sure that is the case now. Dortmund have the luxury of playing youngsters in what is a poor league at the bottom and very competitive at the top and a league which bloods a lot of youngsters in general. The PL is not like that, it is physically a stronger league and the competition strength in depth is clearly higher than Germany.

We seem to be applying a strategy whereby we have a strong XI and are looking to fill the squad with a strong second choice with potential so that if one for the first XI is sold for big money (Jota) then we already have a replacement in (Neto/ Podence). The purchases of Silva, Vitinha and Hoever all back this up and RAN may well go into the team short term but he will be able to provide competition for Jonny longer term.

I'm guessing that Nuno and the plan is for this type of turnaround in the squad in general without losing the ability to play as he wants us to and avoiding expensive mistakes as Everton and Arsenal have made over the last few seasons.

We could well see GK and CB's as the next to come in along with the inevitable Neves replacement next season.

It's all very exciting.