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Let's talk about Nuno....

YoungWolf said:
I disagree, if we had performed exactly the same and those moments the other way - we'd be relieved at the win, I personally would look at the chances both teams had and acknowledge the fact we were lucky in that game. But that is football, fine margins and all that.

In terms of papering over the cracks, our solid defence is what has always kept us in games. There is no shame in how successful we were at in terms of minimising the amount of chances the opposition have. Conceding ridiculous goals, penalties and from set pieces has eroded that quite clearly. Hence why we might as well now be more proactive right now, especially with what we have seen from the 4231 at times.
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Well not necessarily you, but it’s definitely a theme.

Our defence is still relatively solid. We are conceding goals from penalties and set pieces (largely). As I said, performances in open play haven’t really changed, but Raul isn’t scoring and we’re conceding from GK and set pieces we weren’t doing before.
 
Premier Quality said:
Not really, xg is a useful guide to effectiveness of performances, but the beauty and pain of football is that an xg isnt necessarily a goal, poor finishing or good football can (and does) mean that teams with a higher xg sometimes lose.
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xG can be hit and miss, particularly on a single game basis, and can be misleading at face value.

Take the Chelsea game the other day, Wolves had the best chance with Neto but it was born out of a weak pass from Podence being cut out by Kovacic, rebounding off Ziyech and putting Neto clear on the keeper. They didn't really fashion that chance, although the intent was there to do so, it was fortunate to get Neto in that position ultimately.
 
Ok, this thread has turned into one of those 'going round in circles' where people have stopped debating the issues and are just posturing......I'm off
 
MARKakaJIM said:
xG can be hit and miss, particularly on a single game basis, and can be misleading at face value.

Take the Chelsea game the other day, Wolves had the best chance with Neto but it was born out of a weak pass from Podence being cut out by Kovacic, rebounding off Ziyech and putting Neto clear on the keeper. They didn't really fashion that chance, although the intent was there to do so, it was fortunate to get Neto in that position ultimately.
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That’s not how xG works. What you describe is xA.

xG is the quality of the chance for the player to score from not how it was created.

It should also be used with xG against. Ours is heading in the wrong direction at the moment which is never good.
 
MARKakaJIM said:
xG can be hit and miss, particularly on a single game basis, and can be misleading at face value.

Take the Chelsea game the other day, Wolves had the best chance with Neto but it was born out of a weak pass from Podence being cut out by Kovacic, rebounding off Ziyech and putting Neto clear on the keeper. They didn't really fashion that chance, although the intent was there to do so, it was fortunate to get Neto in that position ultimately.
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If Podence has got that pass right it might have actually led to a better chance for Neto tbf - but I agree about your general point!
 
YoungWolf said:
If Podence has got that pass right it might have actually led to a better chance for Neto tbf - but I agree about your general point!
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Any chance you can find our xA on a game by game basis this season YW?

You tend to be up on these things.
 
PuntsWolf said:
Well not necessarily you, but it’s definitely a theme.

Our defence is still relatively solid. We are conceding goals from penalties and set pieces (largely). As I said, performances in open play haven’t really changed, but Raul isn’t scoring and we’re conceding from GK and set pieces we weren’t doing before.
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You are probably right on that, although I’d say physically we look a lot worse at the moment, really lacking in energy in certain areas which is really unlike us (mainly pre lock down, we didn’t defend as deep as this in general nor as passive).

Even if we didn’t go 4231, we need to go back to that mid-block we used to employ, where we would be very aggressive to steal it in certain pockets (Jonny was the best at this mind).
 
Johnny75 said:
Any chance you can find our xA on a game by game basis this season YW?

You tend to be up on these things.
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You can find individual players xAs on understat.com for definite. But that is just essentially the same as the xG for the person taking the shot right?

so if Neto’s shot was 0.47, Podence xA is the same? Had his pass been better it might have been higher?
 
YoungWolf said:
You are probably right on that, although I’d say physically we look a lot worse at the moment, really lacking in energy in certain areas which is really unlike us (mainly pre lock down, we didn’t defend as deep as this in general nor as passive).

Even if we didn’t go 4231, we need to go back to that mid-block we used to employ, where we would be very aggressive to steal it in certain pockets (Jonny was the best at this mind).
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When we do steal it is the main problem, Previously the ball would go straight forward and catch their midfield/defence on the hop. Now it seems we are holding it up by sideways/backwards passing to give the other team the chance to get back.
Man City away last season is a perfect example of how we were.
 
YoungWolf said:
If Podence has got that pass right it might have actually led to a better chance for Neto tbf - but I agree about your general point!
Click to expand...

The same sort of thing probably true in the Palace game too I imagine, assuming Batshuayi had the best chance but he only got that because Coady poorly blocked a tame shot from distance. Makes Palace look better on xG but they've done nothing to earn that chance, it's pot luck.
 
YoungWolf said:
You can find individual players xAs on understat.com for definite. But that is just essentially the same as the xG for the person taking the shot right?

so if Neto’s shot was 0.47, Podence xA is the same? Had his pass been better it might have been higher?
Click to expand...

Surely that can't count as xA for Podence? It touched two Chelsea players between him and Neto!
 
Ok I would like to clarify a few points about my post

I wasn't aiming it at anyone in particular on here as I have not particularly seen a large Nuno Out assault on here, I posted it on my Facebook and decided to share it on here as I felt it articulates my personal opinion on Nuno and the current situation

I certainly do not try to portray myself as superior or as a super fan, far from it, I am merely expressing an opinion

I never said that Nuno's generous donation absolves him from criticism or gives him a job for life, it was the meat on the bones of why I think we have been and continue to be fortunate to have such an individual as our manager. I think it illustrates personal characteristics of the man that sets him apart from many mercenaries in the modern game but I know it doesn't really affect his ability as a football manager though it is part of his character and humanity

I certainly don't think he is above criticism, of course he should be questioned. We heap praise when things are good and we should absolutely question when things are bad which they undoubtedly are right now

Personally I would be gutted if Nuno left the club anytime soon and would worry about the long term implications it might hold for us even if it did give us a short term improvement. Marco Silva being one name mentioned - a man who failed at Everton and also considered us beneath him when we were a humble Championship club, he can fuck off. Nuno gave us a whirl, not him

So yeah, maybe my post was bullshit, maybe it was nonsense or whatever some of you wish to label it as but it is my opinion of the current situation and of Nuno himself
 
YoungWolf said:
You can find individual players xAs on understat.com for definite. But that is just essentially the same as the xG for the person taking the shot right?

so if Neto’s shot was 0.47, Podence xA is the same? Had his pass been better it might have been higher?
Click to expand...
Not sure, does xA not count crosses and through balls?

Otherwise xA would just be xG wouldn’t it?
 
Johnny75 said:
Not sure, does xA not count crosses and through balls?

Otherwise xA would just be xG wouldn’t it?
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think this explains it better actually, accounts for the fact a striker might not get the chance away.
I think xA is probably better for looking at individuals on a long term on that basis?
 
MARKakaJIM said:
Surely that can't count as xA for Podence? It touched two Chelsea players between him and Neto!
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Oh yeah possibly but that was just a throw away example anyway. Let’s say if his pass had actually been played further ahead which it should have done - we had broken into a promising position!
 
Lupo said:
Ok I would like to clarify a few points about my post

I wasn't aiming it at anyone in particular on here as I have not particularly seen a large Nuno Out assault on here, I posted it on my Facebook and decided to share it on here as I felt it articulates my personal opinion on Nuno and the current situation

I certainly do not try to portray myself as superior or as a super fan, far from it, I am merely expressing an opinion

I never said that Nuno's generous donation absolves him from criticism or gives him a job for life, it was the meat on the bones of why I think we have been and continue to be fortunate to have such an individual as our manager. I think it illustrates personal characteristics of the man that sets him apart from many mercenaries in the modern game but I know it doesn't really affect his ability as a football manager though it is part of his character and humanity

I certainly don't think he is above criticism, of course he should be questioned. We heap praise when things are good and we should absolutely question when things are bad which they undoubtedly are right now

Personally I would be gutted if Nuno left the club anytime soon and would worry about the long term implications it might hold for us even if it did give us a short term improvement. Marco Silva being one name mentioned - a man who failed at Everton and also considered us beneath him when we were a humble Championship club, he can fuck off. Nuno gave us a whirl, not him

So yeah, maybe my post was bullshit, maybe it was nonsense or whatever some of you wish to label it as but it is my opinion of the current situation and of Nuno himself
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I thought that is what forums were about, so the post was fine for me. It's an emotive subject, but we all have different opinions on it. The binding thing between all of us (i thought) is that we are all Wolves fans here. So everything we debate is about how OUR team is doing.
 
MARKakaJIM said:
The same sort of thing probably true in the Palace game too I imagine, assuming Batshuayi had the best chance but he only got that because Coady poorly blocked a tame shot from distance. Makes Palace look better on xG but they've done nothing to earn that chance, it's pot luck.
Click to expand...
Kinda, but is slightly different IMO as they should actually just count the shot by Clyne rather than Batshuayi’s shot as well. That a different debate mind, different companies use different methods, some double count some don’t I think.
 
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