The TWF Horse Racing Thread

[Nando]

If the forecast rain comes tomorrow I'd be very keen on Sir Psycho in the Greatwood on Sunday. Crying out for a fast run 2m on slow ground and Nicholls is in absolutely ridiculous form.

 

[Trips]

Epatante looked classy on her return today in the Fighting Fifth. Already got a little bit on her for the Champion Hurdle ante-post, going to have to find some more before March

 

[Trips]

Big weekend for the Irish horses coming over for the festival. I've got Chacun Pour Soi and Monkfish in an ante post 4 fold both out this weekend.

Owner of Honeysuckle has said if she wins today she will go Champion Hurdle rather than the Mares, currently 10s for the CH

 

[Nando]

She's not quick enough and doesn't hurdle quickly enough for a Champion Hurdle to my eyes. This is a much stronger field than when she won the Irish Champion last year. She's a proper horse over 2 1/2 though.

Irish are going to absolutely piss up again this year with Gord cleaning up in the handicaps. I've got a few ew lucky 15s revolving around some of his plots.

 

[Trips]

Epatante was my big fancy for CH last year and this, but her run on Boxing Day was a big worry.

Chacun Pour Soi, Monkfish, Envoi Allen and Shishkin are my 4 real fancies. 4 fold pays around 25/1

 

[Nando]

Seems like there was an excuse for it with Nicky's not being A1 and a small kink with her back. Nothing gets near her if she turns up in the same form as last year.

The novice chase favs all look bomb proof but winners of the Supreme, Ballymore and Bartlett have never all gone on and won next year over fences. I've got similar positions to you but expect one of them to get turned over!

Appreciate It looks head and shoulders above anything else for the Supreme. It looks like a poor renewal. If he repeats his last performance at Christmas tomorrow he'll be evens.

Will stick up some of my bigger priced fancies at some point this weekend.

 

[Nando]

She jumped like a Champion Hurdle horse there! Wow. Stunning from Rachel.

 

[Trips]

She jumped like a Champion Hurdle horse there! Wow. Stunning from Rachel.

Yep, very impressive run against some good horses there.

In from 10s to 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle now

 

[Nando]

Not much of a price now which is rather frustrating as he was good value beforehand but Allaho looks very strong for the Ryanair.

Hopefully Min is OK, but he looked really stiff after that blunder today. Imperial Aura fell and Saint Calvados unshipped today and the stats about horses winning at the festival off the back of falls and unseats are staggering.

Fakir looked better today, but I don't think he's a Grade 1 animal. Frodon and A Plus Tard will go Gold Cup, Melon is likely to as well.

That leaves Mister Fisher, Real Steel, Top Notch, Tornado Fyler, Waiting Patiently, Master Tommytucker who aren't G1 horses or are unlikely to turn up. Samcro would be my main fear if the ground is decent - I'd say he's a very good price at 20s in places.

 

[Trips]

I don't see Frodon winning a GC, but that horse and Bryony have proved me wrong so many times that I wouldn't rule it out! A Plus Tard has looked good this season and I would say is the biggest danger to the Al Boum Photo treble. Native River comes back into consideration after it's great run yesterday

 

[Nando]

If they give Frodon a freebie from the front then who knows! It shouldn't happen with Native River involved.

I was seriously impressed with A Plus Tard at Christmas - had my doubts about him beforehand. Melon and Kemboy had that sewn up but carved themselves up. De Bromhead is all class and I'd love to see him explode with a Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup. Looking forward to Minella Indo today, although he's a short enough price.

 

[Trips]

I've had a treble today on Appreciate It, Monkfish and Minella Indo. Pays around 5.7/1 with skybet. No way I see the first 2 getting beat

 

[Nando]

I've got the first two with Nicholls' Threeunderthrufive at Musselburgh who I've been really taken with in his two hurdle runs to date.

 

[The Bear]

I've had a treble today on Appreciate It, Monkfish and Minella Indo. Pays around 5.7/1 with skybet. No way I see the first 2 getting beat

They're doing a nice 11/1 boost for these four:

 

[Nando]

Monkfish - wow. Astonishingly good over a fence.

 

[darlowolf64]

.

 

[Trips]

Stunning from Monkfish today, I can't see how it gets beat next month.

Caught up with the last race from yesterday, wow what a performance from Kilcruit. That is a banker for the bumper if I ever saw one. Has practically trotted to a 12 length win. Short price at 6/4, but with Monkfish, Chacun Pour Soi and Envoi Allen you should get a decent return with little to trouble any of them

 

[slink]

Not much of a price now which is rather frustrating as he was good value beforehand but Allaho looks very strong for the Ryanair.

Hopefully Min is OK, but he looked really stiff after that blunder today. Imperial Aura fell and Saint Calvados unshipped today and the stats about horses winning at the festival off the back of falls and unseats are staggering.

Fakir looked better today, but I don't think he's a Grade 1 animal. Frodon and A Plus Tard will go Gold Cup, Melon is likely to as well.

That leaves Mister Fisher, Real Steel, Top Notch, Tornado Fyler, Waiting Patiently, Master Tommytucker who aren't G1 horses or are unlikely to turn up. Samcro would be my main fear if the ground is decent - I'd say he's a very good price at 20s in places.

On the face of it i agree with Allaho but i've just got a feeling something will beat him. I'm not sure the RSA form from last year is fantastic the more i see the 2nd and 3rd run and we're yet to see Champ. Totally get the falls/unseated into Cheltenham thing and Min didn't look right yesterday but him and Saint Calvados are definitely capable of winning the race imo and possibly finishing 1st and 2nd again. Agree with the others but could also see Mister Fisher improving to run well on goodish ground.

I think Honeysuckle wins the Champion, she has a bit of everything and will come up the hill better than everything else i think. Not sure she beat anything that would win a Champion yesterday mind but she has class.

Race of the weekend for me was Native River rolling back the years. Absolutely love him and have done since the first time i saw him run. Backed him at 14's antepost in 2018 and will never forget that day. Wish i'd have backed him at 40's this year as even though it's going to be really tough to regain his crown if the weather continues this way he's going to take some knocking out the frame as he jumps and stays all day and is pretty fresh again. It did highlight how much i'm going to miss going to Cheltenham this year though, can't wait for this shit to end.

 

[Nando]

I was bitterly disappointed with Minella Indo yesterday and Patrick was inferring beforehand when interviewed that Allaho is just a G2 animal. Now I wouldn't typically trust a word that comes out of his mouth, but he did seem to be speaking honestly.

Agreed on Native River - an absolute warrior and good for the Tizzard's who've had a really horrible spell of it.

SkyBet are offering an enhanced 5/1 on the Chacun/Monkfish double. They've only let me have £15 on, but on the basis of what we saw at the weekend that looks huge.

 

[Trips]

Cheers Nando, just found that bet and managed to get £20 on it